{"id": "2020-09-05-gdelt-c-tanker", "slug": "2020-cargo-ship-capsizes-off-japan-tanker-fire-off-sri-lanka", "url": "/incidents/2020-cargo-ship-capsizes-off-japan-tanker-fire-off-sri-lanka/", "label": "Cargo ship capsizes off Japan; tanker fire off Sri Lanka", "summary": "A cargo ship carrying 6,000 cattle and 43 crew capsized off the coast of Japan on September 3, 2020, during Typhoon Maysak, with multiple Filipino seafarers lost and search operations suspended due to weather. Separately, an oil tanker caught fire off Sri Lanka around the same time, with ships from Sri Lanka and India attempting to douse the fire and tow the vessel to safety. Both incidents generated significant media attention focused on seafarer welfare and environmental concerns.", "incident_type": "other", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["cargo ship", "oil tanker"], "location": null, "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2020-09-05", "peak_level": 93.377, "peak_level_date": "2020-09-05", "onset_date": "2020-09-03", "end_date": "2020-09-13", "duration_days": 11, "composite": {"excess_area": 248.41449999999998, "highest_since": "2020-08-16", "peak": 93.377, "peak_z": 2.7741160029703957, "percentile_of_peak_day": 85.5921, "rank_of_peak_day": 338}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 498.22599999999994, "lead_days": 1, "peak_z": 3.6605224391845965, "share_at_peak": 0.35707332940692316, "share_of_excess": 0.39450719757923636, "share_peak3": 0.3592803559986264}, "research": {"excess": 43.187, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.7543671388880698, "share_at_peak": 0.037784716078649805, "share_of_excess": 0.051294740765800505, "share_peak3": 0.043992700187274546}, "search": {"excess": 99.09449999999998, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.9813531897123405, "share_at_peak": 0.07281190934428125, "share_of_excess": 0.11769807323538603, "share_peak3": 0.07838979300676523}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 551.2589999999999, "lead_days": 0, "peak_z": 4.63354902595129, "share_at_peak": 0.5323300451701458, "share_of_excess": 0.43649998841957716, "share_peak3": 0.5183371508073338}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "low", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "mixed", "verdict_at_peak": "social-led", "verdicts_disagree": true}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.16666666666666666, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.26996699669966995, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 4.725006946012298, "c_tanker": 40.32410548336035, "c_teu": 4.476606374247292, "c_vessel": 9.766642645255903}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.1972431900229734, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.604368932038835, "peak_z": 1.5364343251894772}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.1626794258373205, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.4065934065934067, "peak_z": 1.089831990270295}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 1.1413574396733979, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.302325581395349, "peak_z": 0.7440106968119314}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0787492762015054, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.5194805194805194, "peak_z": 1.3838522078946534}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 1.0932715932715933, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.2277951933124347, "peak_z": 0.5817216375321947}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.2497191389924953, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.5118577075098814, "peak_z": 1.1950523177492292}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.1972431900229734, "peak_z": 1.5364343251894772}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.1475855815007934, "peak_z": 1.1172497871318312}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.3426573426573427, "peak_z": 3.205491139377974}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.1465367965367965, "peak_z": 0.8053883839559602}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.380355276907001, "peak_z": 3.927555583268193}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.009867730422003, "peak_z": 0.9971331731143365}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.176110884631064, "peak_z": 1.5120784834384091}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.3156400607381, "peak_z": 1.5971127752266405}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.1626794258373205, "peak_z": 1.089831990270295}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0880702940182494, "peak_z": 0.6272006303768412}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.9784283513097073, "peak_z": 1.1547087670410263}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0596877869605141, "peak_z": 0.928606772756306}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 9, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 4, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2020-09-05", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 59.291}, "attribution": {"alternatives": ["Cargo ship capsizes off Japan during Typhoon Maysak", "Oil tanker fire off Sri Lanka"], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": false}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "integrated and peak-day verdicts differ (smoothing artefact likely)", "naming step found more than one plausible cause in the headlines (alternatives: ['Cargo ship capsizes off Japan during Typhoon Maysak', 'Oil tanker fire off Sri Lanka']) \u2014 attribution.confidence is low; label may be an honest compound", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (548/1026 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0018281535648994515, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.029250457038391225, "freight_markets": 0.04021937842778794, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.012797074954296161, "human_drama": 0.7111517367458866, "pollution_event": 0.17550274223034734, "safety_failure": 0.0018281535648994515, "seafarer_victim": 0.012797074954296161, "shady_industry": 0.0018281535648994515, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0018281535648994515, "technology_frontier": 0.010968921389396709}, "buckets": {"people": 0.7055001160362017, "planet": 0.1965653283824564, "politics": 0.01926200974704118, "price": 0.03945230912044577, "progress": 0.03922023671385492}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.773308957952468, "mostly acted upon": 0.04570383912248629, "mostly actor": 0.17184643510054845, "neutral": 0.0018281535648994515, "primary actor": 0.007312614259597806}, "acted_upon_share": 0.773308957952468, "trade_share": 0.056672760511883, "strongly_negative_share": 0.1170018281535649, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2020-09-09", "source": "reuters.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Sri Lanka tows stricken oil tanker out to sea, douses fire"}, {"date": "2020-09-04", "source": "bloomberg.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Oil Tanker on Fire Near Sri Lanka: Latest News on Ship MT New Diamond"}, {"date": "2020-09-03", "source": "washingtonpost.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Cargo ship carrying 43 crew and thousands of cows is missing off Japan after Typhoon Maysak"}, {"date": "2020-09-03", "source": "thetimes.co.uk", "tier": "core", "title": "Typhoon Maysak: Cargo ship disappears off Japanese coast"}, {"date": "2020-09-03", "source": "splash247.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "Crew evacuates laden VLCC off Sri Lanka as fire erupts"}, {"date": "2020-09-03", "source": "tradewindsnews.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "Laden New Shipping VLCC suffers major fire off Sri Lanka"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2020-08-20", "2020-08-21", "2020-08-22", "2020-08-23", "2020-08-24", "2020-08-25", "2020-08-26", "2020-08-27", "2020-08-28", "2020-08-29", "2020-08-30", "2020-08-31", "2020-09-01", "2020-09-02", "2020-09-03", "2020-09-04", "2020-09-05", "2020-09-06", "2020-09-07", "2020-09-08", "2020-09-09", "2020-09-10", "2020-09-11", "2020-09-12", "2020-09-13", "2020-09-14", "2020-09-15", "2020-09-16", "2020-09-17", "2020-09-18", "2020-09-19", "2020-09-20", "2020-09-21", "2020-09-22", "2020-09-23", "2020-09-24", "2020-09-25", "2020-09-26", "2020-09-27", "2020-09-28", "2020-09-29", "2020-09-30", "2020-10-01", "2020-10-02", "2020-10-03", "2020-10-04", "2020-10-05", "2020-10-06", 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