{"id": "2020-02-05-gdelt-c-teu", "slug": "2020-coronavirus-disrupts-shipping-markets-and-operations", "url": "/incidents/2020-coronavirus-disrupts-shipping-markets-and-operations/", "label": "Coronavirus disrupts shipping markets and operations", "summary": "A spike in container shipping attention driven by coronavirus-related disruptions to freight markets and supply chains in early February 2020. Headlines reflect market concerns about Chinese oil demand collapse, carrier capacity cuts, port restrictions on seafarers from China, and broader supply chain fragility amid the emerging pandemic.", "incident_type": "market", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["container ship", "tanker", "bulk carrier"], "location": null, "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2020-02-05", "peak_level": 41.851, "peak_level_date": "2020-02-05", "onset_date": "2020-02-04", "end_date": "2020-02-05", "duration_days": 2, "composite": {"excess_area": null, "highest_since": "2020-01-30", "peak": 41.851, "peak_z": null, "percentile_of_peak_day": 1.7101, "rank_of_peak_day": 2300}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": null, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": null, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "research": {"excess": 2.9329999999999927, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.3859337435401382, "share_at_peak": 0.7162917323398762, "share_of_excess": 0.6783071230342261, 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{"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.1519721577726219, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1736111111111112, "peak_z": 0.5341043000928545}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.2065573770491804, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.2717391304347827, "peak_z": 0.8008372994647595}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 1.1513840830449826, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1913419913419914, "peak_z": 0.4935848545594992}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0919540229885059, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1017811704834606, "peak_z": 0.3365920718336547}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 1.2125890736342042, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.3312252964426878, "peak_z": 0.8050520807757181}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0749676863420938, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1005154639175259, "peak_z": 0.27974252290226964}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.1519721577726219, "peak_z": 0.5341043000928545}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.174054054054054, "peak_z": 0.633588457492685}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.0545454545454545, "peak_z": 0.4773818026779305}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.1273247496423462, "peak_z": 0.4643746387410182}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.056910569105691, "peak_z": 0.347453323019466}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.1059479553903346, "peak_z": 0.36130269756397354}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.3065068493150684, "peak_z": 1.2511730325195527}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.0741758241758241, "peak_z": 0.2514919978617014}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.2065573770491804, "peak_z": 0.8008372994647595}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.1044357102751263, "peak_z": 0.4022408272511878}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.9940119760479043, "peak_z": 4.533441385414063}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.1688963210702341, "peak_z": 0.5765935964271877}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 0, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": null, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2020-02-05", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 43.26}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "medium", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (23/125 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms", "coverage panel is based on only 23 articles (< 30) \u2014 directional, not precise"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": true, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.4782608695652174, "freight_markets": 0.21739130434782608, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.0, "human_drama": 0.043478260869565216, "pollution_event": 0.0, "safety_failure": 0.0, "seafarer_victim": 0.043478260869565216, "shady_industry": 0.0, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.21739130434782608, "technology_frontier": 0.0}, "buckets": {"people": 0.07216494845360824, "planet": 0.0, "politics": 0.0, "price": 0.5309278350515464, "progress": 0.3969072164948454}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.043478260869565216, "mostly acted upon": 0.391304347826087, "mostly actor": 0.5652173913043478, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.0}, "acted_upon_share": 0.043478260869565216, "trade_share": 0.08695652173913043, "strongly_negative_share": 0.0, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2020-02-05", "source": "splash247.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "Coronavirus predicted to wipe 6m teu of Chinese box volumes in Q1 -"}, {"date": "2020-02-03", "source": "gcaptain.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "VLCC Rates Slump as Coronavirus Hits China Oil Demand \u2013 gCaptain"}, {"date": "2020-02-05", "source": "seatrade-maritime.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Chinese container ports could take a 6m teu hit in Q1 from coronavirus"}, {"date": "2020-02-05", "source": "joc.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "China virus: Coronavirus to cost China ports 6 million TEU in first quarter: analyst"}, {"date": "2020-02-02", "source": "hellenicshippingnews.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Tanker Market: Optimism Ahead for 2020, but Coronavirus a Major Disruption | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide"}, {"date": "2020-02-04", "source": "inquirer.net", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Seafarers, Novel Coronavirus and other infections"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2020-01-21", "2020-01-22", "2020-01-23", "2020-01-24", 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