{"id": "2020-04-25-gdelt-c-vessel", "slug": "2020-seafarer-repatriation-crisis-during-covid-19-pandemic", "url": "/incidents/2020-seafarer-repatriation-crisis-during-covid-19-pandemic/", "label": "Seafarer repatriation crisis during COVID-19 pandemic", "summary": "During April 2020, widespread media and research attention focused on thousands of seafarers stranded aboard vessels or in foreign ports due to COVID-19 lockdowns and crew-change restrictions. Multiple governments, including India and the Philippines, launched evacuation and repatriation efforts. The spike also captured concurrent maritime incidents including piracy attacks in the Gulf of Guinea and Ecuador, fuel tanker bottlenecks at Mexican ports, and shipping industry disruptions.", "incident_type": "labour", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["container ship", "oil tanker", "cargo ship"], "location": null, "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2020-04-25", "peak_level": 86.215, "peak_level_date": "2020-04-25", "onset_date": "2020-04-20", "end_date": "2020-05-01", "duration_days": 12, "composite": {"excess_area": 369.226, "highest_since": null, "peak": 86.215, "peak_z": 3.2772869102204716, "percentile_of_peak_day": 83.0269, "rank_of_peak_day": 398}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 293.91849999999994, "lead_days": 5, "peak_z": 4.291801169984519, "share_at_peak": 0.3102276530825091, "share_of_excess": 0.15673001461486044, "share_peak3": 0.23168758369575934}, "research": {"excess": 594.9385000000001, "lead_days": 0, "peak_z": 4.747776900213415, "share_at_peak": 0.395077299208817, "share_of_excess": 0.475870282748159, "share_peak3": 0.4606210174223501}, "search": {"excess": 336.64300000000003, "lead_days": -2, "peak_z": 3.3489080213771847, "share_at_peak": 0.2238718002202312, "share_of_excess": 0.2692688397123207, "share_peak3": 0.2516523309396782}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 184.0265, "lead_days": 0, "peak_z": 2.7018544124308597, "share_at_peak": 0.0708232474884427, "share_of_excess": 0.0981308629246598, "share_peak3": 0.05603906794221237}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "public-curiosity-led", "verdict_at_peak": "public-curiosity-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.3333333333333333, "breadth": 0.3333333333333333, "concentration": 0.7307491964274371, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 2.6784861149970465, "c_tanker": 2.0994165762933372, "c_teu": 8.577340809967993, "c_vessel": 35.11417066814759}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.1676104190260477, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.469387755102041, "peak_z": 1.265169514718191}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0598462052825142, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.33125, "peak_z": 0.8729992090980657}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 1.2321573398215735, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.3747940691927512, "peak_z": 0.8670941250699788}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.3059101654846337, "lifted": true, "peak_multiple": 1.9008498583569404, "peak_z": 2.070948979809022}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 1.0565130510803047, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.2481146304675717, "peak_z": 0.6020371758480613}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 3.0731429337624028, "lifted": true, "peak_multiple": 7.287915652879157, "peak_z": 5.58468760708725}}, "groups_lifted": 2, "lead_group": "Tankers", "verdict": "spillover", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.1676104190260477, "peak_z": 1.265169514718191}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.1170024743725697, "peak_z": 1.1231470022114056}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.2553763440860215, "peak_z": 2.6206018473063093}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.3000436585898276, "peak_z": 1.3129331965290798}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.141914191419142, "peak_z": 0.9247110685675785}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.3424124513618676, "peak_z": 3.013392083645761}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.0894764957264957, "peak_z": 1.3663891036265394}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 3.9896222498962226, "peak_z": 6.998826858303619}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.0598462052825142, "peak_z": 0.8729992090980657}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0605812897366031, "peak_z": 0.7469041804016341}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.025573192239859, "peak_z": 1.8417134761968927}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.6622296173044926, "peak_z": 3.2365700960716777}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 12, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 5, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2020-04-25", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 50.896}, "attribution": {"alternatives": ["Seafarer repatriation crisis and crew-change disruptions", "Piracy incidents in Gulf of Guinea and Ecuador", "Fuel tanker congestion at Mexican ports", "General maritime industry COVID-19 disruptions"], "confidence": "medium", "single_cause": false}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "naming step found more than one plausible cause in the headlines (alternatives: ['Seafarer repatriation crisis and crew-change disruptions', 'Piracy incidents in Gulf of Guinea and Ecuador', 'Fuel tanker congestion at Mexican ports', 'General maritime industry COVID-19 disruptions']) \u2014 attribution.confidence is low; label may be an honest compound", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (291/754 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0036900369003690036, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.08118081180811808, "freight_markets": 0.2140221402214022, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.033210332103321034, "human_drama": 0.07380073800738007, "pollution_event": 0.0036900369003690036, "safety_failure": 0.007380073800738007, "seafarer_victim": 0.4944649446494465, "shady_industry": 0.0036900369003690036, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.055350553505535055, "technology_frontier": 0.02952029520295203}, "buckets": {"people": 0.5500972762645919, "planet": 0.006809338521400767, "politics": 0.05447470817120614, "price": 0.27188715953307374, "progress": 0.11673151750972738}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.21033210332103322, "mostly acted upon": 0.5202952029520295, "mostly actor": 0.2029520295202952, "neutral": 0.007380073800738007, "primary actor": 0.05904059040590406}, "acted_upon_share": 0.21033210332103322, "trade_share": 0.07011070110701106, "strongly_negative_share": 0.05904059040590406, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2020-04-27", "source": "straitstimes.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Don't forget the seafarers who keep global deliveries going"}, {"date": "2020-04-23", "source": "splash247.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "Ships around the world urged to honk their support for the essential work seafarers are carrying out during the coronavirus crisis -"}, {"date": "2020-04-23", "source": "tradewindsnews.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "New Zealand defends its support for seafarer welfare"}, {"date": "2020-04-24", "source": "hellenicshippingnews.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Seafarer mental wellbeing during the COVID-19 pandemic | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide"}, {"date": "2020-04-23", "source": "tankeroperator.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Tanker Operator Marlink supports ship operators and their crews during COVID-19 pandemic"}, {"date": "2020-04-22", "source": "indiatimes.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "COVID-19: Government paves way for return of stuck seafarers to homes, issues guidelines for crew change"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2020-04-06", "2020-04-07", "2020-04-08", "2020-04-09", "2020-04-10", "2020-04-11", "2020-04-12", "2020-04-13", "2020-04-14", "2020-04-15", "2020-04-16", "2020-04-17", "2020-04-18", "2020-04-19", "2020-04-20", 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