{"id": "2020-11-25-gdelt-c-tanker", "slug": "2020-tanker-agrari-attacked-in-saudi-red-sea", "url": "/incidents/2020-tanker-agrari-attacked-in-saudi-red-sea/", "label": "Tanker Agrari attacked in Saudi Red Sea", "summary": "The Greek-operated tanker Agrari was struck by an explosion while at a terminal in Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port on November 25, 2020. A private security firm reported that a mine explosion damaged the vessel's hull approximately 1 meter above the waterline. The incident was characterized as an attack in the geopolitical context of the region.", "incident_type": "attack", "vessels": ["Agrari"], "vessel_types": ["tanker"], "location": "Saudi Arabian Red Sea", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2020-11-25", "peak_level": 53.141, "peak_level_date": "2020-11-26", "onset_date": "2020-11-25", "end_date": "2020-11-26", "duration_days": 2, "composite": {"excess_area": 0.9420000000000002, "highest_since": "2020-10-19", "peak": 53.141, "peak_z": 0.08833407433809909, "percentile_of_peak_day": 37.8367, "rank_of_peak_day": 1455}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 7.701999999999998, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.33313501135896123, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.14239625798459926, "share_peak3": 0.13483539472877987}, "research": {"excess": 3.789999999999999, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.2688740746880413, "share_at_peak": 0.0877776043627149, "share_of_excess": 0.10510552150642, "share_peak3": 0.15262204248837996}, "search": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -1.1234285804123174, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 40.7015, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.3592613690836586, "share_at_peak": 0.9122223956372851, "share_of_excess": 0.7524982205089806, "share_peak3": 0.7125425627828402}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "social-led", "verdict_at_peak": "social-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.0, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.2300531914893617, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 1.0964998475977539, "c_tanker": 6.739531336690192, "c_teu": 0.0, "c_vessel": 0.9665091393128504}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0364372469635628, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1111111111111112, "peak_z": 0.3454851306023687}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0037986704653372, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0475285171102662, "peak_z": 0.14485818503116413}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 1.0853383458646617, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1647940074906367, "peak_z": 0.43425609476219185}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9115168539325843, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.949438202247191, "peak_z": -0.18545602602785718}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 1.12015338730294, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1459044368600682, "peak_z": 0.38142939184487207}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0125673249551166, "peak_z": -0.003763464492528457}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.0364372469635628, "peak_z": 0.3454851306023687}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.1354051054384018, "peak_z": 0.4735874129138221}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.1714285714285715, "peak_z": 0.6469059632188947}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.05788876276958, "peak_z": 0.5281595933124557}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.0361990950226245, "peak_z": 0.30232744071854367}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8974358974358975, "peak_z": -0.2919201847731881}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.1319340329835081, "peak_z": 0.5841139889538124}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.9450243562978428, "peak_z": -0.05754907185510823}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.0037986704653372, "peak_z": 0.14485818503116413}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.091023226616447, "peak_z": 0.39829865992832786}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.2142857142857142, "peak_z": 1.3575729196664263}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.1296625222024868, "peak_z": 0.8331140248270968}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": null, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": null, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2020-11-26", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": null}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (52/52 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0196078431372549, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.0, "freight_markets": 0.13725490196078433, "geopolitical_pawn": 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Saudi Terminal in Red Sea \u2013 gCaptain"}, {"date": "2020-11-26", "source": "msn.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Oil Tanker Owner Says Ship Attacked in Saudi Arabian Red Sea"}, {"date": "2020-11-25", "source": "worldoil.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Oil tanker attacked in Saudi Arabian Red Sea terminal"}, {"date": "2020-11-25", "source": "chron.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Alert: Private security firm says mine explodes, damaging oil tanker off Saudi Arabia near Yemen border in Red Sea"}, {"date": "2020-11-25", "source": "go.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Private security firm says mine explodes, damaging oil tanker off Saudi Arabia near Yemen border in Red Sea"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2020-11-11", "2020-11-12", "2020-11-13", "2020-11-14", "2020-11-15", "2020-11-16", "2020-11-17", "2020-11-18", "2020-11-19", "2020-11-20", "2020-11-21", "2020-11-22", "2020-11-23", 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