{"id": "2021-10-07-gdelt-c-vessel", "slug": "2021-california-oil-spill-blamed-on-cargo-ship", "url": "/incidents/2021-california-oil-spill-blamed-on-cargo-ship/", "label": "California oil spill blamed on cargo ship", "summary": "A cargo ship anchored near an oil pipeline off Los Angeles made unusual movements around the time of an oil spill in early October 2021. The Coast Guard investigated whether the vessel snagged the pipeline. The incident drew attention to cargo ship congestion off the California coast.", "incident_type": "pollution", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["container ship"], "location": "off Los Angeles, California", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2021-10-07", "peak_level": 85.169, "peak_level_date": "2021-10-07", "onset_date": "2021-10-06", "end_date": "2021-10-07", "duration_days": 2, "composite": {"excess_area": 55.964, "highest_since": "2021-06-04", "peak": 85.169, "peak_z": 2.4622321701327703, "percentile_of_peak_day": 82.6849, "rank_of_peak_day": 406}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 42.38799999999999, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.4495470540613797, "share_at_peak": 0.17108601651002392, "share_of_excess": 0.14968055870666222, "share_peak3": 0.14251219461424774}, "research": {"excess": 61.891000000000005, "lead_days": -6, "peak_z": 2.7107541122223107, "share_at_peak": 0.2847934460207983, "share_of_excess": 0.32782436511208474, "share_peak3": 0.31855350712248737}, "search": {"excess": 48.323499999999996, "lead_days": -2, "peak_z": 2.1605139684938632, "share_at_peak": 0.2286879534002787, "share_of_excess": 0.25596000561460996, "share_peak3": 0.2661773787303724}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 75.47999999999999, "lead_days": 0, "peak_z": 3.1091385759817864, "share_at_peak": 0.315432584068899, "share_of_excess": 0.26653507056664305, "share_peak3": 0.2727569195328925}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "low", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "mixed", "verdict_at_peak": "mixed", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.25, "breadth": 0.16666666666666666, "concentration": 0.425903170312116, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 1.621557681158627, "c_tanker": 2.050792125143401, "c_teu": -0.007012580036958707, "c_vessel": 5.021672356077629}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.4867162592986185, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.5382978723404255, "peak_z": 1.4007485475401027}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0500490677134446, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0903732809430255, "peak_z": 0.27703522379738754}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 1.6978364503116978, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.8294117647058823, "peak_z": 1.6698186037541898}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.7474747474747474, "lifted": true, "peak_multiple": 1.7718120805369129, "peak_z": 2.014715553833176}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 1.2739904472427268, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.3179843614248479, "peak_z": 0.7814821041525338}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.2727780883174957, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.3052749719416386, "peak_z": 0.7835514022362383}}, "groups_lifted": 1, "lead_group": "Gas carriers", "verdict": "isolated", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.4867162592986185, "peak_z": 1.4007485475401027}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.3055900621118013, "peak_z": 1.0773272242496077}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.7207792207792207, "peak_z": 1.865680588441009}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.9366883116883118, "peak_z": 2.166834391832993}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.6243902439024391, "peak_z": 2.1138336146144616}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.7938931297709924, "peak_z": 2.496096310162713}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.5113268608414239, "peak_z": 1.5315590908515428}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.2910958904109588, "peak_z": 1.0027053023244241}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.0500490677134446, "peak_z": 0.27703522379738754}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.196668802049968, "peak_z": 0.6425768987939277}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.1282051282051282, "peak_z": 0.8651073221315473}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0909090909090908, "peak_z": 0.4324902326632674}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": null, "days_to_baseline_note": ">30 days (still elevated at window end)", "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": null, "half_life_note": ">30 days (still elevated at window end)", "peak_level_date": "2021-10-07", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 53.89}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "medium", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (50/301 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms", "decay half-life: >30 days (still elevated at window end)"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.04, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.06, "freight_markets": 0.18, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.0, "human_drama": 0.06, "pollution_event": 0.52, "safety_failure": 0.0, "seafarer_victim": 0.0, "shady_industry": 0.0, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.1, "technology_frontier": 0.04}, "buckets": {"people": 0.05483028720626632, "planet": 0.5274151436031331, "politics": 0.03916449086161881, "price": 0.26370757180156656, "progress": 0.11488250652741516}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.5, "mostly acted upon": 0.28, "mostly actor": 0.2, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.02}, "acted_upon_share": 0.5, "trade_share": 0.02, "strongly_negative_share": 0.0, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2021-10-07", "source": "msn.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "California oil spill: Coast Guard investigating whether cargo ship that made unusual movements may have snagged pipeline"}, {"date": "2021-10-06", "source": "latimes.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Coast Guard boards cargo ship in California oil spill probe"}, {"date": "2021-10-07", "source": "sandiegouniontribune.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Coast Guard investigates cargo ship in California oil spill  - The San Diego Union-Tribune"}, {"date": "2021-10-07", "source": "biztoc.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Coast Guard investigates cargo ship in California oil spill"}, {"date": "2021-10-07", "source": "9and10news.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "US Coast Guard boards massive German cargo ship that has become a focus of investigation into California oil spill"}, {"date": "2021-10-07", "source": "sfgate.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Alert: US Coast Guard boards massive German cargo ship that has become a focus of investigation into California oil spill"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": 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"Container ship": {"dates": ["2021-09-22", "2021-09-23", "2021-09-24", "2021-09-25", "2021-09-26", "2021-09-27", "2021-09-28", "2021-09-29", "2021-09-30", "2021-10-01", "2021-10-02", "2021-10-03", "2021-10-04", "2021-10-05", "2021-10-06", "2021-10-07", "2021-10-08", "2021-10-09", "2021-10-10", "2021-10-11", "2021-10-12", "2021-10-13", "2021-10-14", "2021-10-15", "2021-10-16", "2021-10-17", "2021-10-18", "2021-10-19", "2021-10-20", "2021-10-21", "2021-10-22", "2021-10-23", "2021-10-24", "2021-10-25", "2021-10-26", "2021-10-27", "2021-10-28", "2021-10-29", "2021-10-30", "2021-10-31", "2021-11-01", "2021-11-02", "2021-11-03", "2021-11-04", "2021-11-05", "2021-11-06"], "ratio": [1.43, 1.41, 1.35, 1.0, 1.18, 1.56, 1.48, 1.63, 3.61, 1.8, 1.3, 1.3, 1.79, 1.8, 2.09, 1.78, 1.63, 1.57, 1.28, 1.66, 1.71, 2.33, 2.7, 2.0, 1.5, 1.64, 1.84, 1.92, 2.02, 1.94, 1.69, 1.37, 1.62, 1.84, 1.66, 1.67, 1.62, 1.45, 1.24, 1.12, 1.28, 1.45, 1.39, 1.11, 1.17, 0.99], "peak_ratio": 2.09, "baseline_views": 923.0}, "Gas carrier": {"dates": ["2021-09-22", "2021-09-23", "2021-09-24", "2021-09-25", "2021-09-26", "2021-09-27", "2021-09-28", "2021-09-29", "2021-09-30", "2021-10-01", "2021-10-02", "2021-10-03", "2021-10-04", "2021-10-05", "2021-10-06", "2021-10-07", "2021-10-08", "2021-10-09", "2021-10-10", "2021-10-11", "2021-10-12", "2021-10-13", "2021-10-14", "2021-10-15", "2021-10-16", "2021-10-17", "2021-10-18", "2021-10-19", "2021-10-20", "2021-10-21", "2021-10-22", "2021-10-23", "2021-10-24", "2021-10-25", "2021-10-26", "2021-10-27", "2021-10-28", "2021-10-29", "2021-10-30", "2021-10-31", "2021-11-01", "2021-11-02", "2021-11-03", "2021-11-04", "2021-11-05", "2021-11-06"], "ratio": [1.17, 1.11, 1.2, 0.76, 0.9, 1.43, 1.5, 1.43, 1.47, 0.93, 0.73, 0.75, 1.73, 1.25, 1.81, 1.43, 1.29, 1.02, 1.27, 1.55, 1.44, 1.46, 1.51, 1.13, 1.89, 0.85, 1.05, 1.46, 1.34, 1.49, 1.18, 1.05, 0.7, 1.17, 1.09, 1.8, 1.52, 1.65, 0.83, 1.16, 1.5, 1.8, 1.49, 1.17, 1.3, 1.05], "peak_ratio": 1.81, "baseline_views": 103.0}, "LNG carrier": {"dates": ["2021-09-22", "2021-09-23", "2021-09-24", "2021-09-25", "2021-09-26", "2021-09-27", "2021-09-28", "2021-09-29", "2021-09-30", "2021-10-01", "2021-10-02", "2021-10-03", "2021-10-04", "2021-10-05", "2021-10-06", "2021-10-07", "2021-10-08", "2021-10-09", "2021-10-10", "2021-10-11", "2021-10-12", "2021-10-13", "2021-10-14", "2021-10-15", "2021-10-16", "2021-10-17", "2021-10-18", "2021-10-19", "2021-10-20", "2021-10-21", "2021-10-22", "2021-10-23", "2021-10-24", "2021-10-25", "2021-10-26", "2021-10-27", "2021-10-28", "2021-10-29", "2021-10-30", "2021-10-31", "2021-11-01", "2021-11-02", "2021-11-03", "2021-11-04", "2021-11-05", "2021-11-06"], "ratio": [1.4, 1.22, 1.28, 0.89, 0.97, 2.06, 1.75, 1.81, 1.8, 1.62, 1.24, 1.09, 1.6, 1.52, 1.64, 1.93, 1.74, 1.08, 1.07, 1.66, 1.44, 1.55, 1.68, 1.4, 1.17, 1.02, 1.47, 1.53, 1.52, 2.04, 1.47, 0.98, 1.01, 1.61, 1.47, 1.43, 1.81, 1.31, 0.78, 0.99, 1.45, 1.4, 1.41, 1.4, 1.28, 1.04], "peak_ratio": 1.93, "baseline_views": 197.0}, "Maritime transport": {"dates": ["2021-09-22", "2021-09-23", "2021-09-24", "2021-09-25", "2021-09-26", "2021-09-27", "2021-09-28", "2021-09-29", "2021-09-30", "2021-10-01", "2021-10-02", "2021-10-03", "2021-10-04", "2021-10-05", "2021-10-06", "2021-10-07", "2021-10-08", "2021-10-09", "2021-10-10", "2021-10-11", "2021-10-12", "2021-10-13", "2021-10-14", "2021-10-15", "2021-10-16", "2021-10-17", "2021-10-18", "2021-10-19", "2021-10-20", "2021-10-21", "2021-10-22", "2021-10-23", "2021-10-24", "2021-10-25", "2021-10-26", "2021-10-27", "2021-10-28", "2021-10-29", "2021-10-30", "2021-10-31", "2021-11-01", "2021-11-02", "2021-11-03", "2021-11-04", "2021-11-05", "2021-11-06"], "ratio": [1.18, 1.04, 1.0, 0.86, 0.79, 1.27, 1.1, 1.35, 1.31, 1.19, 0.94, 1.05, 1.34, 1.23, 1.47, 1.55, 1.06, 0.88, 1.01, 1.39, 1.4, 1.22, 1.25, 1.17, 0.93, 0.98, 1.27, 1.25, 1.31, 1.14, 1.07, 0.97, 1.0, 1.57, 1.48, 1.46, 1.37, 1.1, 0.81, 1.51, 1.14, 1.28, 1.25, 1.22, 1.42, 1.04], "peak_ratio": 1.55, "baseline_views": 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