{"id": "2021-03-13-gdelt-c-vessel", "slug": "2021-container-ship-lori-attacked-in-gulf-of-oman", "url": "/incidents/2021-container-ship-lori-attacked-in-gulf-of-oman/", "label": "Container ship Lori attacked in Gulf of Oman", "summary": "An Iranian investigator attributed an attack on the container ship Lori in the Gulf of Oman to Israel, while Iran initially denied involvement and called it a 'false flag' operation. The incident occurred in early March 2021 and generated significant geopolitical attention.", "incident_type": "attack", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["container ship"], "location": "Gulf of Oman", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2021-03-13", "peak_level": 56.152, "peak_level_date": "2021-03-13", "onset_date": "2021-03-11", "end_date": "2021-03-13", "duration_days": 3, "composite": {"excess_area": 11.41449999999999, "highest_since": "2021-03-04", "peak": 56.152, "peak_z": 0.6683487795445462, "percentile_of_peak_day": 48.0975, "rank_of_peak_day": 1215}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 31.624499999999998, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.1625436475441902, "share_at_peak": 0.3766589499354974, "share_of_excess": 0.36289621577891945, "share_peak3": 0.34216838660021054}, "research": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.07857541674984395, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "search": {"excess": 26.275500000000015, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.9995597692828084, "share_at_peak": 0.3446551328043544, "share_of_excess": 0.45227337275051005, "share_peak3": 0.4367037056410334}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 16.107000000000006, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.9209390805260071, "share_at_peak": 0.27868591726014813, "share_of_excess": 0.18483041147057055, "share_peak3": 0.221127907758756}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "medium", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "mixed", "verdict_at_peak": "mixed", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.0, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.26292868807838865, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 0.880867623652628, "c_tanker": 1.12061709003288, "c_teu": 0.4192970589773925, "c_vessel": 5.58191918229234}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9964087495919034, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.2007874015748032, "peak_z": 0.5861226347529617}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 0.9832572298325722, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1247706422018349, "peak_z": 0.35774495506317855}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 1.0151630022744504, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0858010630220198, "peak_z": 0.2247420341945763}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9251700680272109, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0190735694822888, "peak_z": 0.07304515556665707}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 0.9991596638655462, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1276415891800506, "peak_z": 0.3526582889564346}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.067823850851816, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1305182341650672, "peak_z": 0.3668299918900052}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.9964087495919034, "peak_z": 0.5861226347529617}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0326944757609922, "peak_z": 0.4573949673956311}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.9230769230769231, "peak_z": 0.3500403912934378}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0190861769809139, "peak_z": 0.18034869321691713}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.9748148148148148, "peak_z": 0.7078655449378342}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.9140211640211641, "peak_z": 0.07828241503247069}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.042864346949067, "peak_z": 0.823676813599721}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.1195734958111196, "peak_z": 0.5714660406375598}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 0.9832572298325722, "peak_z": 0.35774495506317855}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9980928162746344, "peak_z": 0.210023810204901}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.9971988795518207, "peak_z": 0.8737099843426789}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0083333333333333, "peak_z": 0.30232377215357575}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 4, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 1, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2021-03-13", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 51.037}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "medium", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (51/229 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.0196078431372549, "freight_markets": 0.11764705882352941, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.6274509803921569, "human_drama": 0.21568627450980393, "pollution_event": 0.0, "safety_failure": 0.0196078431372549, "seafarer_victim": 0.0, "shady_industry": 0.0, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0, "technology_frontier": 0.0}, "buckets": {"people": 0.22950819672131156, "planet": 0.0, "politics": 0.6202185792349725, "price": 0.12295081967213119, "progress": 0.02732240437158471}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.8431372549019608, "mostly acted upon": 0.058823529411764705, "mostly actor": 0.0196078431372549, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.0784313725490196}, "acted_upon_share": 0.8431372549019608, "trade_share": 0.0, "strongly_negative_share": 0.3333333333333333, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2021-03-13", "source": "reuters.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Iranian investigator says Israel likely behind attack on container ship"}, {"date": "2021-03-11", "source": "maritimebulletin.net", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Iranian container ship fire off Syria, wild speculations around"}, {"date": "2021-03-12", "source": "zerohedge.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Iranian Container Ship Hit By \"Explosives\" In\u00a0Mediterranean"}, {"date": "2021-03-12", "source": "timesofisrael.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Iran says container ship damaged in 'terrorist' attack in Mediterranean"}, {"date": "2021-03-13", "source": "yahoo.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "'Terrorist' attack on Iran container ship"}, {"date": "2021-03-13", "source": "antiwar.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Iranian Container Ship Damaged in Attack in Mediterranean"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2021-02-25", "2021-02-26", "2021-02-27", "2021-02-28", "2021-03-01", "2021-03-02", "2021-03-03", "2021-03-04", "2021-03-05", "2021-03-06", "2021-03-07", "2021-03-08", "2021-03-09", "2021-03-10", "2021-03-11", "2021-03-12", "2021-03-13", "2021-03-14", "2021-03-15", "2021-03-16", 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