{"id": "2021-08-01-gdelt-c-tanker", "slug": "2021-drone-attack-on-tanker-in-arabian-sea", "url": "/incidents/2021-drone-attack-on-tanker-in-arabian-sea/", "label": "Drone attack on tanker in Arabian Sea", "summary": "A tanker was attacked by drone in the Arabian Sea on July 30, 2021, killing two crew members. Israel and the US blamed Iran for the attack, which escalated Iran-Israel maritime tensions. Iran denied involvement. The incident also coincided with reports of a separate tanker seizure by Iran-backed forces and routine tanker market news.", "incident_type": "attack", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["tanker"], "location": "Arabian Sea", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2021-08-01", "peak_level": 75.965, "peak_level_date": "2021-08-03", "onset_date": "2021-07-30", "end_date": "2021-08-12", "duration_days": 14, "composite": {"excess_area": 106.74049999999997, "highest_since": "2021-06-05", "peak": 75.965, "peak_z": 1.4614467653661682, "percentile_of_peak_day": 76.4002, "rank_of_peak_day": 553}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 0.6184999999999974, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.02485575032542356, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0008956589863486183, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "research": {"excess": 23.382000000000012, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.6050344224329814, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.05078972939079262, "share_peak3": 0.003862954581337834}, "search": {"excess": 46.400999999999996, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.6608532608601052, "share_at_peak": 0.07234457561245432, "share_of_excess": 0.10079096028834861, "share_peak3": 0.07834324509236357}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 585.26, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 4.419065498671424, "share_at_peak": 0.9276554243875457, "share_of_excess": 0.8475236513345101, "share_peak3": 0.9177938003262986}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "social-led", "verdict_at_peak": "social-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.0, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.31000926784059313, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 1.323259837560169, "c_tanker": 12.103100251419823, "c_teu": 3.4368661763186537, "c_vessel": 0.8197279209232683}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.8838033595315149, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0989247311827957, "peak_z": 0.3457969716412145}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 0.8780788177339901, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0038240917782026, "peak_z": 0.01828102514383265}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 0.9359389695892988, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.3532846715328468, "peak_z": 0.8508550559736292}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.7938434858009972, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0481927710843373, "peak_z": 0.25715863783626197}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 0.9668310174809502, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.082437275985663, "peak_z": 0.23459678754577323}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9369060601339773, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1525054466230937, "peak_z": 0.42704592770914823}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8838033595315149, "peak_z": 0.3457969716412145}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9364311625496632, "peak_z": 0.4595379272986229}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.8862602365787079, "peak_z": 1.1751165259611707}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9511879378617119, "peak_z": 1.2570703480950882}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.924198250728863, "peak_z": 0.710112929419226}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.7566371681415929, "peak_z": 0.18057985893127748}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.9101714285714285, "peak_z": 0.4850031924229483}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.9817065832230112, "peak_z": 0.739362547706551}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 0.8780788177339901, "peak_z": 0.01828102514383265}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9765205091937765, "peak_z": 0.2426084118491281}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.9794079794079794, "peak_z": 0.7996008007239058}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 0.8805471124620061, "peak_z": 0.5490756785565135}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 5, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 3, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2021-08-03", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 51.758}, "attribution": {"alternatives": ["Tanker attacked by drone off Oman", "Tanker seized by Iran-backed forces", "Routine tanker market and shipping reports"], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": false}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "naming step found more than one plausible cause in the headlines (alternatives: ['Tanker attacked by drone off Oman', 'Tanker seized by Iran-backed forces', 'Routine tanker market and shipping reports']) \u2014 attribution.confidence is low; label may be an honest compound", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (154/154 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.012987012987012988, "freight_markets": 0.17532467532467533, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.6883116883116883, "human_drama": 0.012987012987012988, "pollution_event": 0.0, "safety_failure": 0.012987012987012988, "seafarer_victim": 0.025974025974025976, "shady_industry": 0.012987012987012988, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0, "technology_frontier": 0.05844155844155844}, "buckets": {"people": 0.14191960623461838, "planet": 0.00492206726825266, "politics": 0.6300246103363417, "price": 0.1599671862182114, "progress": 0.06316652994257581}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.6948051948051948, "mostly acted upon": 0.18831168831168832, "mostly actor": 0.09740259740259741, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.01948051948051948}, "acted_upon_share": 0.6948051948051948, "trade_share": 0.032467532467532464, "strongly_negative_share": 0.4935064935064935, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2021-07-30", "source": "washingtonpost.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Oil tanker attacked off Oman in Arabian Sea  - The Washington Post"}, {"date": "2021-08-06", "source": "aljazeera.com", "tier": "core", "title": "G7: Iran behind tanker attack, 'threatens international peace' | Shipping News"}, {"date": "2021-07-30", "source": "tradewindsnews.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "Two killed in attack on Zodiac Maritime tanker off Oman"}, {"date": "2021-07-30", "source": "msn.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Deadly oil tanker attack in Arabian Sea"}, {"date": "2021-07-30", "source": "thehill.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Oil tanker linked to Israeli billionaire reportedly attacked in Arabian Sea"}, {"date": "2021-07-30", "source": "iwradio.co.uk", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Briton among two killed in attack on tanker in Arabian Sea"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2021-07-16", "2021-07-17", "2021-07-18", "2021-07-19", "2021-07-20", "2021-07-21", "2021-07-22", "2021-07-23", "2021-07-24", "2021-07-25", "2021-07-26", "2021-07-27", "2021-07-28", "2021-07-29", "2021-07-30", "2021-07-31", "2021-08-01", "2021-08-02", "2021-08-03", "2021-08-04", "2021-08-05", "2021-08-06", "2021-08-07", "2021-08-08", "2021-08-09", "2021-08-10", "2021-08-11", "2021-08-12", "2021-08-13", "2021-08-14", "2021-08-15", "2021-08-16", "2021-08-17", "2021-08-18", "2021-08-19", "2021-08-20", "2021-08-21", "2021-08-22", "2021-08-23", "2021-08-24", "2021-08-25", "2021-08-26", "2021-08-27", "2021-08-28", "2021-08-29", "2021-08-30", "2021-08-31", "2021-09-01", "2021-09-02", "2021-09-03", "2021-09-04", "2021-09-05", "2021-09-06", "2021-09-07", 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