{"id": "2022-12-16-gdelt-c-tanker", "slug": "2022-russia-assembles-shadow-fleet-of-oil-tankers-to-evade-sanctions", "url": "/incidents/2022-russia-assembles-shadow-fleet-of-oil-tankers-to-evade-sanctions/", "label": "Russia assembles shadow fleet of oil tankers to evade sanctions", "summary": "Reports emerged in early December 2022 that Russia had assembled a fleet of over 100 oil tankers to circumvent Western sanctions on Russian oil exports. The spike also captured concurrent maritime industry news including freight rate movements, EU sanctions impacts on Cyprus-flagged tanker fleets, and various port and shipyard developments.", "incident_type": "regime", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["tanker"], "location": null, "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2022-12-16", "peak_level": 60.838, "peak_level_date": "2022-12-09", "onset_date": "2022-12-03", "end_date": "2022-12-16", "duration_days": 14, "composite": {"excess_area": 55.49099999999996, "highest_since": "2022-12-09", "peak": 60.838, "peak_z": 1.0010053346169066, "percentile_of_peak_day": 56.9474, "rank_of_peak_day": 1008}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 202.58399999999997, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 3.546338911894574, "share_at_peak": 0.898370510995096, "share_of_excess": 0.568228975655524, "share_peak3": 0.9239902944365098}, "research": {"excess": 1.641999999999996, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.08607613132487295, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.006908482244597561, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "search": {"excess": 0.3965000000000103, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.028439752670884243, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.001668217545665658, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 150.87649999999996, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 2.5797175282344518, "share_at_peak": 0.10162948900490403, "share_of_excess": 0.4231943245542128, "share_peak3": 0.07600970556349017}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "medium", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "media-led", "verdict_at_peak": "media-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.0, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.8101494075218959, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 8.515290080026984, "c_tanker": 5.301990938965803, "c_teu": 5.54312970647776, "c_vessel": 1.040441917590483}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.8271428571428572, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9934354485776805, "peak_z": 0.007224232342426733}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 0.9061638868745467, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0059642147117296, "peak_z": 0.07070963277038847}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 0.8966054390861297, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9857397504456328, "peak_z": -0.010275787677705355}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.7669479196974105, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9224806201550387, "peak_z": -0.1193936608128473}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 0.8063364055299539, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9366255144032922, "peak_z": -0.24079382740756197}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0727986373398504, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.3855932203389831, "peak_z": 0.9302681161097464}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8271428571428572, "peak_z": 0.007224232342426733}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.8518307721494972, "peak_z": -0.03089016226121969}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.859086491739553, "peak_z": 1.0049501443579076}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9205252246026261, "peak_z": 0.051724143394467716}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8827546955036994, "peak_z": 1.2180327572475744}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.7540020263424518, "peak_z": -0.4951208488317173}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.8185907046476761, "peak_z": 0.4963725060721106}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.1472789115646258, "peak_z": 1.2665804237537879}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 0.9061638868745467, "peak_z": 0.07070963277038847}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.7944332662642521, "peak_z": -0.2956839601849095}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.9803921568627451, "peak_z": 0.9712942125422604}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 0.9680377987770984, "peak_z": 0.6625291306374361}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 5, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 2, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2022-12-09", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 51.982}, "attribution": {"alternatives": ["Russian shadow fleet sanctions evasion", "Broader maritime industry and freight market volatility"], "confidence": "medium", "single_cause": false}, "sub_peaks": [{"composite_peak": 60.838, "end_date": "2022-12-13", "onset_date": "2022-12-09", "peak_date": "2022-12-09", "peak_z": 8.515290080026984, "triggers": ["gdelt:c_industry", "gdelt:c_teu"]}], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "naming step found more than one plausible cause in the headlines (alternatives: ['Russian shadow fleet sanctions evasion', 'Broader maritime industry and freight market volatility']) \u2014 attribution.confidence is low; label may be an honest compound", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (144/567 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.013888888888888888, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.0, "freight_markets": 0.2986111111111111, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.2777777777777778, "human_drama": 0.1111111111111111, "pollution_event": 0.0, "safety_failure": 0.0, "seafarer_victim": 0.0, "shady_industry": 0.1736111111111111, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0763888888888889, "technology_frontier": 0.04861111111111111}, "buckets": {"people": 0.09559434746467159, "planet": 0.016625103906899412, "politics": 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Tankers"}, {"date": "2022-12-06", "source": "businessinsider.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Middle Eastern, Asian Companies Buy up Old Tankers to Ship Russian Oil"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2022-11-19", "2022-11-20", "2022-11-21", "2022-11-22", "2022-11-23", "2022-11-24", "2022-11-25", "2022-11-26", "2022-11-27", "2022-11-28", "2022-11-29", "2022-11-30", "2022-12-01", "2022-12-02", "2022-12-03", "2022-12-04", "2022-12-05", "2022-12-06", "2022-12-07", "2022-12-08", "2022-12-09", "2022-12-10", "2022-12-11", "2022-12-12", "2022-12-13", "2022-12-14", "2022-12-15", "2022-12-16", "2022-12-17", "2022-12-18", "2022-12-19", "2022-12-20", "2022-12-21", "2022-12-22", "2022-12-23", "2022-12-24", "2022-12-25", "2022-12-26", "2022-12-27", "2022-12-28", "2022-12-29", "2022-12-30", "2022-12-31", "2023-01-01", "2023-01-02", "2023-01-03", "2023-01-04", "2023-01-05", "2023-01-06", "2023-01-07", "2023-01-08", "2023-01-09", "2023-01-10", 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