{"id": "2023-12-12-composite", "slug": "2023-carriers-quit-the-red-sea", "url": "/incidents/2023-carriers-quit-the-red-sea/", "label": "Carriers quit the Red Sea", "summary": "In mid-December 2023 Yemen's Houthi rebels launched a series of missile and drone attacks on container ships and tankers transiting the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, hitting a Norwegian-flagged tanker and several cargo vessels. Within days Maersk, BP and other major operators suspended or rerouted traffic away from the region.", "incident_type": "attack", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["tanker", "container ship", "cargo ship"], "location": "Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait", "tier": "A", "kind": "incident", "shape": "plateau", "peak_date": "2023-12-12", "peak_level": 137.148, "peak_level_date": "2023-12-31", "onset_date": "2023-12-12", "end_date": "2024-01-04", "duration_days": 24, "composite": {"excess_area": 915.9409999999999, "highest_since": "2022-03-03", "peak": 137.148, "peak_z": 2.7765050677651812, "percentile_of_peak_day": 94.1855, "rank_of_peak_day": 137}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 2440.9815, "lead_days": 0, "peak_z": 2.3905003886067027, "share_at_peak": 0.18513976132328006, "share_of_excess": 0.555780516944689, "share_peak3": 0.14828136668516503}, "research": {"excess": 239.663, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.0890728384986081, "share_at_peak": 0.43616090948841274, "share_of_excess": 0.0818523364674302, "share_peak3": 0.5374797032043245}, "search": {"excess": 39.44050000000001, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.5633904209308149, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.013470152157169367, "share_peak3": 0.002850115443377913}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 1532.3515, "lead_days": -3, "peak_z": 4.231175452902764, "share_at_peak": 0.37869932918830723, "share_of_excess": 0.3488969944307114, "share_peak3": 0.31138881466713264}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "low", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "media-led", "verdict_at_peak": "mixed", "verdicts_disagree": true}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.16666666666666666, "breadth": 0.16666666666666666, "concentration": 0.3656986110506379, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 6.502191988153781, "c_tanker": 39.47260712075176, "c_teu": 4.676513837477839, "c_vessel": 27.6677525275048}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.8245159059474412, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0871369294605808, "peak_z": 0.2730573325576163}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0813341135166765, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.5492625368731563, "peak_z": 0.7917033070366221}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 1.0220608292416804, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.2804578904333606, "peak_z": 0.6877949393554509}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.8339852238157323, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1197916666666667, "peak_z": 0.37917064523775373}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 0.9135266723116003, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.139475908706678, "peak_z": 0.37359096520518403}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.1866649085794656, "lifted": true, "peak_multiple": 1.9926238145416229, "peak_z": 2.012955265935614}}, "groups_lifted": 1, "lead_group": "Tankers", "verdict": "isolated", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8245159059474412, "peak_z": 0.2730573325576163}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.986372646184341, "peak_z": 0.7220412578855218}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.9871794871794872, "peak_z": 3.9649942263261297}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0771804062126642, "peak_z": 0.913000957183156}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8137464387464387, "peak_z": 0.8055867068167999}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.87744140625, "peak_z": 0.44589518273075684}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.8065930956423316, "peak_z": 0.09916452607488406}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.2963567156063078, "peak_z": 2.5025011783712507}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.0813341135166765, "peak_z": 0.7917033070366221}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9555953803265631, "peak_z": 0.5665068357355159}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.0121951219512195, "peak_z": 1.3447653428305386}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0367598137059215, "peak_z": 1.3254706056786278}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 9, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 5, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2023-12-31", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 83.732}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [{"composite_peak": 125.727, "end_date": "2023-12-27", "onset_date": "2023-12-25", "peak_date": "2023-12-25", "peak_z": 6.502191988153781, "triggers": ["gdelt:c_industry"]}], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "integrated and peak-day verdicts differ (smoothing artefact likely)", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.006389776357827476, "cost_of_living": 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"aljazeera.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Tanker 'attacked by cruise missile' as it traverses Bab el-Mandeb Strait | Shipping News"}, {"date": "2023-12-14", "source": "biztoc.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Missile fired from rebel-controlled Yemen misses a container ship in Bab el-Mandeb Strait"}, {"date": "2023-12-14", "source": "naharnet.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Missile fired from Yemen misses container ship in Bab el-Mandeb Strait"}, {"date": "2023-12-14", "source": "tankeroperator.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Tanker Operator Missiles from rebel-held Yemen miss a ship loaded with jet fuel near the key Bab el-Mandeb Strait"}, {"date": "2023-12-14", "source": "devdiscourse.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Missile fired from rebel-controlled Yemen misses container ship in Bab el-Mandeb Strait"}, {"date": "2023-12-14", "source": "latestly.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "World News | Missile Fired from Rebel-controlled Yemen Misses Container Ship in Bab El-Mandeb Strait"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2023-11-28", "2023-11-29", "2023-11-30", "2023-12-01", "2023-12-02", "2023-12-03", "2023-12-04", "2023-12-05", "2023-12-06", "2023-12-07", "2023-12-08", "2023-12-09", "2023-12-10", "2023-12-11", "2023-12-12", "2023-12-13", "2023-12-14", "2023-12-15", "2023-12-16", "2023-12-17", "2023-12-18", "2023-12-19", "2023-12-20", "2023-12-21", "2023-12-22", "2023-12-23", "2023-12-24", "2023-12-25", "2023-12-26", "2023-12-27", "2023-12-28", "2023-12-29", "2023-12-30", "2023-12-31", "2024-01-01", "2024-01-02", "2024-01-03", "2024-01-04", "2024-01-05", "2024-01-06", "2024-01-07", "2024-01-08", "2024-01-09", "2024-01-10", "2024-01-11", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-13", "2024-01-14", "2024-01-15", "2024-01-16", "2024-01-17", "2024-01-18", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-20", "2024-01-21", "2024-01-22", "2024-01-23", "2024-01-24", "2024-01-25", "2024-01-26", 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