{"id": "2023-09-17-gdelt-c-vessel", "slug": "2023-first-cargo-ships-resume-ukrainian-port-operations", "url": "/incidents/2023-first-cargo-ships-resume-ukrainian-port-operations/", "label": "First cargo ships resume Ukrainian port operations", "summary": "Two cargo ships arrived at a Ukrainian port on September 17, 2023, marking the resumption of maritime traffic after Russia's exit from the grain deal. The vessels departed despite Russian threats in the region.", "incident_type": "policy", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["bulk carrier", "cargo ship"], "location": "Odesa, Ukraine", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2023-09-17", "peak_level": 84.384, "peak_level_date": "2023-09-17", "onset_date": "2023-09-17", "end_date": "2023-09-17", "duration_days": 1, "composite": {"excess_area": 20.578000000000003, "highest_since": "2023-08-06", "peak": 84.384, "peak_z": 1.3221569649332527, "percentile_of_peak_day": 82.4711, "rank_of_peak_day": 411}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 92.19550000000001, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 2.182643332833644, "share_at_peak": 0.6968893558561027, "share_of_excess": 0.6968893558561027, "share_peak3": 0.5724646255873823}, "research": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.22643088475936893, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.007628408920584072}, "search": {"excess": 26.733500000000006, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.5976939066308125, "share_at_peak": 0.30311064414389727, "share_of_excess": 0.30311064414389727, "share_peak3": 0.41990696549203366}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.5135422244560609, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "media-led", "verdict_at_peak": "media-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.0, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.6597938144329897, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": -1.5393865983493067, "c_tanker": 0.3770070615218631, "c_teu": -0.6744907594765952, "c_vessel": 19.489369013736052}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0184804928131417, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0205761316872428, "peak_z": 0.05904941773903476}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 0.7868852459016393, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.787363304981774, "peak_z": -0.7128881358552928}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 0.9146238377007607, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9130801687763713, "peak_z": -0.2519896043006486}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.8104956268221575, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.8104956268221575, "peak_z": -0.7171468062507902}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 0.9948908499767766, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9944289693593314, "peak_z": -0.014657921700829767}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 0.7568093385214008, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.7568093385214008, "peak_z": -0.8025315373342309}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.0184804928131417, "peak_z": 0.05904941773903476}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0161812297734627, "peak_z": 0.052182886774611525}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.7007299270072993, "peak_z": -1.4321655461664762}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.8569424964936886, "peak_z": -0.4691931988767981}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8080808080808081, "peak_z": -0.816116318110947}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8319327731092437, "peak_z": -0.6688941703717537}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.7984189723320159, "peak_z": -0.8094900570353852}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.7042660882140275, "peak_z": -1.070257238900243}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 0.7868852459016393, "peak_z": -0.7128881358552928}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0403530895334174, "peak_z": 0.11834901421604113}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.9777777777777777, "peak_z": -0.10465595038114794}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 0.9152542372881356, "peak_z": -0.3158402006559246}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 6, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 2, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2023-09-17", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 66.394}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "medium", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (217/265 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.4700460829493088, "freight_markets": 0.009216589861751152, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.45161290322580644, "human_drama": 0.0, "pollution_event": 0.0, "safety_failure": 0.0, "seafarer_victim": 0.0, "shady_industry": 0.0, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0, "technology_frontier": 0.06912442396313365}, "buckets": {"people": 0.001425855513307984, "planet": 0.002851711026615968, "politics": 0.4672053231939154, "price": 0.0066539923954372585, "progress": 0.5218631178707234}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.018433179723502304, "mostly acted upon": 0.013824884792626729, "mostly actor": 0.9493087557603687, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.018433179723502304}, "acted_upon_share": 0.018433179723502304, "trade_share": 0.004608294930875576, "strongly_negative_share": 0.018433179723502304, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2023-09-17", "source": "nytimes.com", "tier": "core", "title": "First Cargo Ships Arrive in Ukraine Since Russia Ended a Grain Deal"}, {"date": "2023-09-17", "source": "nzherald.co.nz", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Russia-Ukraine war: First two cargo ships arrive in Ukrainian port after Russia's exit from grain deal"}, {"date": "2023-09-17", "source": "biztoc.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "First two cargo ships arrive in Ukrainian port after Russia's exit from grain deal"}, {"date": "2023-09-16", "source": "yahoo.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "First merchant vessels navigating temporary corridor to Ukrainian port"}, {"date": "2023-09-17", "source": "oxfordmail.co.uk", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "First cargo ships arrive in Ukrainian port after Russia's exit from grain deal"}, {"date": "2023-09-17", "source": "mercurynews.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "First two cargo ships in Ukrainian port after Russian exit from deal"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2023-09-03", "2023-09-04", "2023-09-05", "2023-09-06", "2023-09-07", "2023-09-08", "2023-09-09", "2023-09-10", "2023-09-11", "2023-09-12", "2023-09-13", "2023-09-14", "2023-09-15", 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