{"id": "2023-12-04-gdelt-c-vessel", "slug": "2023-houthis-attack-merchant-ships-in-red-sea", "url": "/incidents/2023-houthis-attack-merchant-ships-in-red-sea/", "label": "Houthis attack merchant ships in Red Sea", "summary": "Houthi forces attacked two merchant ships in the Red Sea on December 3-4, 2023, with missiles and rockets. A British-owned cargo ship was struck by a missile, and the Houthis released video of a cargo ship hijacking. The attacks occurred weeks after earlier Houthi operations in the region.", "incident_type": "attack", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["cargo ship", "merchant ship"], "location": "Red Sea", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2023-12-04", "peak_level": 83.002, "peak_level_date": "2023-12-04", "onset_date": "2023-12-04", "end_date": "2023-12-04", "duration_days": 1, "composite": {"excess_area": 14.655500000000004, "highest_since": "2023-11-30", "peak": 83.002, "peak_z": 0.9045589875248077, "percentile_of_peak_day": 81.5306, "rank_of_peak_day": 433}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 52.003, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.2074365912074836, "share_at_peak": 0.6328747284576394, "share_of_excess": 0.6328747284576394, "share_peak3": 0.5365277687694947}, "research": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.3035547118234341, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "search": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.656582037302734, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 30.1665, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.8815942967736057, "share_at_peak": 0.36712527154236063, "share_of_excess": 0.36712527154236063, "share_peak3": 0.4634722312305053}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "media-led", "verdict_at_peak": "media-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.0, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.635930993456276, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": -0.28468837139375625, "c_tanker": -0.008106786220202068, "c_teu": 0.05372639967467525, "c_vessel": 14.150327251995112}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0257466529351185, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0246913580246915, "peak_z": 0.08200663665823456}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.3462908973113055, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.3725231175693526, "peak_z": 0.5171278936483724}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 1.0506535947712419, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0497959183673469, "peak_z": 0.13887084828701582}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9282920469361148, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9295039164490861, "peak_z": -0.24935441204097164}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 1.0829805249788316, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0848176420695506, "peak_z": 0.22517037714475133}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0872974385781495, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0833333333333333, "peak_z": 0.24363094988990963}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.0257466529351185, "peak_z": 0.08200663665823456}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.1491053677932406, "peak_z": 0.4458803027082021}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.9583333333333334, "peak_z": -0.15760989828855007}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9971830985915493, "peak_z": -0.008567348732306074}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.9914529914529915, "peak_z": -0.03567911248739075}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.933852140077821, "peak_z": -0.24547353878475867}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.1838879159369526, "peak_z": 0.5948070534048226}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.1426269137792102, "peak_z": 0.4139507971851174}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.3462908973113055, "peak_z": 0.5171278936483724}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0829326923076923, "peak_z": 0.23667057186687782}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.975609756097561, "peak_z": -0.1289442569304879}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0335305719921104, "peak_z": 0.11862557571381843}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 0, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": null, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2023-12-04", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 83.641}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (171/234 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.005847953216374269, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.0, "freight_markets": 0.0, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.9766081871345029, "human_drama": 0.0, "pollution_event": 0.0, "safety_failure": 0.0, "seafarer_victim": 0.0, "shady_industry": 0.0, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0, "technology_frontier": 0.017543859649122806}, "buckets": {"people": 0.0, "planet": 0.008312551953449687, "politics": 0.971737323358271, "price": 0.0, "progress": 0.019950124688279246}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.9766081871345029, "mostly acted upon": 0.017543859649122806, "mostly actor": 0.005847953216374269, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.0}, "acted_upon_share": 0.9766081871345029, "trade_share": 0.005847953216374269, "strongly_negative_share": 0.3508771929824561, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2023-12-03", "source": "maritime-executive.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "Houthis Take Responsibility for Attacking Two Merchant Ships in the Red Sea"}, {"date": "2023-12-04", "source": "penarthtimes.co.uk", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "British merchant ship struck by missile in Red Sea attack"}, {"date": "2023-12-04", "source": "portsmouth.co.uk", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Unity Explorer: British merchant ship hit by missile in attack by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Red Sea"}, {"date": "2023-12-04", "source": "arkansasonline.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Houthis assault cargo ships | The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - Arkansas' Best News Source"}, {"date": "2023-12-04", "source": "washingtontimes.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "U.S. says Iran responsible for Sunday's attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea"}, {"date": "2023-12-04", "source": "oilprice.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "British Merchant Ship Sustains Damage In Houthi Attack"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2023-11-20", "2023-11-21", "2023-11-22", "2023-11-23", "2023-11-24", "2023-11-25", "2023-11-26", "2023-11-27", "2023-11-28", "2023-11-29", "2023-11-30", "2023-12-01", "2023-12-02", "2023-12-03", "2023-12-04", "2023-12-05", "2023-12-06", 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