{"id": "2023-08-15-gdelt-c-teu", "slug": "2023-russia-fires-on-cargo-ship-in-black-sea", "url": "/incidents/2023-russia-fires-on-cargo-ship-in-black-sea/", "label": "Russia fires on cargo ship in Black Sea", "summary": "On August 13, 2023, Russia fired warning shots at and boarded a cargo ship in the Black Sea near Bulgaria, marking the first such incident since the collapse of the UN-brokered grain deal. The ship reportedly failed to stop when ordered. The incident drew international condemnation from Ukraine and other parties.", "incident_type": "attack", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["cargo ship"], "location": "Black Sea", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2023-08-15", "peak_level": 72.449, "peak_level_date": "2023-08-14", "onset_date": "2023-08-13", "end_date": "2023-08-22", "duration_days": 10, "composite": {"excess_area": 126.35899999999998, "highest_since": "2023-08-14", "peak": 72.449, "peak_z": 1.3903901380085275, "percentile_of_peak_day": 72.5524, "rank_of_peak_day": 643}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 88.38550000000004, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.7225307357886456, "share_at_peak": 0.11664100759770388, "share_of_excess": 0.1267618157736787, "share_peak3": 0.17183972157855298}, "research": {"excess": 1.8174999999999955, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.15028638554482526, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.00390996713548026, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "search": {"excess": 65.60250000000002, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.3912101207492347, "share_at_peak": 0.022278739645583443, "share_of_excess": 0.14112991417075355, "share_peak3": 0.018503029397179224}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 507.74100000000004, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 3.703936167905136, "share_at_peak": 0.8610802527567126, "share_of_excess": 0.7281983029200874, "share_peak3": 0.8096572490242678}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "social-led", "verdict_at_peak": "social-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.0, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.22924600152322924, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 1.6460457493898495, "c_tanker": 2.2089989146489644, "c_teu": 7.6080717233397115, "c_vessel": 6.363265135430743}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0626834381551362, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.434873949579832, "peak_z": 1.2014241530155247}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0807387862796833, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.2345844504021448, "peak_z": 0.4963967676299552}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 1.0265509761388287, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1841876629018244, "peak_z": 0.49191089445326025}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9825072886297376, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.206997084548105, "peak_z": 0.627188461330044}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 0.9478847884788479, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.165474060822898, "peak_z": 0.45810965916020613}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9963937621832358, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.248046875, "peak_z": 0.6328986968537107}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.0626834381551362, "peak_z": 1.2014241530155247}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0554938956714761, "peak_z": 0.5721488381663016}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.0553846153846154, "peak_z": 1.996304704911761}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0173975557153128, "peak_z": 0.5802415104067534}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.0211640211640212, "peak_z": 1.0956554921549526}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.9639278557114228, "peak_z": 0.5869131797275255}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.9365079365079365, "peak_z": 0.5722128540962722}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.0165945165945165, "peak_z": 0.8581974870901102}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.0807387862796833, "peak_z": 0.4963967676299552}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9599009900990099, "peak_z": 0.7367732130580432}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.9222222222222223, "peak_z": 1.1141936161372097}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 0.9511450381679389, "peak_z": 0.3459244341595599}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 0, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": null, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2023-08-14", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 73.139}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (195/626 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.13846153846153847, "freight_markets": 0.035897435897435895, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.7538461538461538, "human_drama": 0.02564102564102564, "pollution_event": 0.0, "safety_failure": 0.0, "seafarer_victim": 0.0, "shady_industry": 0.010256410256410256, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.015384615384615385, "technology_frontier": 0.020512820512820513}, "buckets": {"people": 0.03139612558450228, "planet": 0.0, "politics": 0.7027388109552443, "price": 0.050768203072812206, "progress": 0.21509686038744122}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.4461538461538462, "mostly acted upon": 0.06153846153846154, "mostly actor": 0.4256410256410256, "neutral": 0.005128205128205128, "primary actor": 0.06153846153846154}, "acted_upon_share": 0.4461538461538462, "trade_share": 0.005128205128205128, "strongly_negative_share": 0.22564102564102564, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2023-08-13", "source": "cnn.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Russia fires warning shots and boards cargo ship in Black Sea, says Russian MoD"}, {"date": "2023-08-14", "source": "washingtonpost.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Russia-Ukraine war news: Odessa attacks injure 3; Russia fired shots at Black Sea cargo ship"}, {"date": "2023-08-14", "source": "telegraph.co.uk", "tier": "core", "title": "Watch: Russian commandos land on cargo ship as grain deal collapses"}, {"date": "2023-08-13", "source": "nzcity.co.nz", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Russia fires warnings shots on cargo ship in Black Sea for first time since collapse of UN-brokered grain deal - 14-Aug-2023"}, {"date": "2023-08-13", "source": "novinite.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Russia fired a Warning Shot at a Merchant Ship in the Black Sea near Bulgaria - Novinite.com"}, {"date": "2023-08-13", "source": "yahoo.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Russia fires warning shots at cargo ship which 'failed to stop' in the Black Sea"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2023-07-30", "2023-07-31", 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