{"id": "2024-11-20-social-bulk-carrier", "slug": "2024-chinese-bulk-carrier-suspected-of-cable-sabotage", "url": "/incidents/2024-chinese-bulk-carrier-suspected-of-cable-sabotage/", "label": "Chinese bulk carrier suspected of cable sabotage", "summary": "A Chinese-flagged bulk carrier was monitored by Danish military after undersea data cables were ruptured between NATO countries in late November 2024. The incident raised concerns about potential sabotage of critical infrastructure.", "incident_type": "attack", "vessels": ["Chinese-flagged bulk carrier"], "vessel_types": ["bulk carrier"], "location": "undersea cables between NATO countries", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2024-11-20", "peak_level": 59.568, "peak_level_date": "2024-11-21", "onset_date": "2024-11-19", "end_date": "2024-11-29", "duration_days": 11, "composite": {"excess_area": 8.212499999999991, "highest_since": "2024-10-12", "peak": 59.568, "peak_z": 0.3902410788615696, "percentile_of_peak_day": 54.8525, "rank_of_peak_day": 1057}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.19097418162992427, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "research": {"excess": 56.59150000000001, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.8437198211413954, "share_at_peak": 0.25434143867795544, "share_of_excess": 0.36970389847947865, "share_peak3": 0.3095447011796821}, "search": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.09787790446549494, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "social": {"basis": "x_bluesky", "excess": 144.72150000000002, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.9917574570978986, "share_at_peak": 0.7456585613220446, "share_of_excess": 0.6302961015205214, "share_peak3": 0.6904552988203179}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "social-led", "verdict_at_peak": "social-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.0, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.17204819277108432, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 1.0216544102536198, "c_tanker": 0.589482226352583, "c_teu": 5.320885420667211, "c_vessel": 4.073389159837162}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0526845215641896, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.3213296398891967, "peak_z": 0.9485136342080116}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.002505916747877, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1944444444444444, "peak_z": 0.5406960662941607}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 1.006060606060606, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.262, "peak_z": 0.6955632503169918}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9485930735930735, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.2529761904761905, "peak_z": 0.7730595699793149}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 1.0125204137180186, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1414752116082225, "peak_z": 0.3354997767962016}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0017564048210283, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.5112881806108898, "peak_z": 1.2473783550927744}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.0526845215641896, "peak_z": 0.9485136342080116}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0795320382097242, "peak_z": 1.783729533315513}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.0061782877316858, "peak_z": 0.8887641218841335}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9591499409681228, "peak_z": 0.5859669041986466}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.9201101928374655, "peak_z": 1.15526738748186}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.9693340591544184, "peak_z": 0.8146557474772887}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.0294372294372294, "peak_z": 0.8936292445385658}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.9767987722307484, "peak_z": 1.3294326531206433}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.002505916747877, "peak_z": 0.5406960662941607}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0344110115236875, "peak_z": 0.329383697730312}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.06993006993007, "peak_z": 1.7265607894201414}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.1014911014911015, "peak_z": 1.841332169128697}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 3, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 2, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2024-11-21", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 47.767}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "medium", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (81/487 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.125, "freight_markets": 0.2625, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.2, "human_drama": 0.0125, "pollution_event": 0.0, "safety_failure": 0.0125, "seafarer_victim": 0.0, "shady_industry": 0.3125, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0, "technology_frontier": 0.075}, "buckets": {"people": 0.02770083102493075, "planet": 0.0, "politics": 0.5678670360110805, "price": 0.2368421052631579, "progress": 0.16759002770083103}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.1875, "mostly acted upon": 0.1875, "mostly actor": 0.45, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.175}, "acted_upon_share": 0.1875, "trade_share": 0.05, "strongly_negative_share": 0.0375, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2024-11-21", "source": "winnipegfreepress.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Danish military monitors a Chinese-flagged bulk carrier after undersea data cables were ruptured \u2013 Winnipeg Free Press"}, {"date": "2024-11-21", "source": "washingtontimes.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Danish military surveils Chinese-flagged bulk carrier after undersea data cables were ruptured"}, {"date": "2024-11-21", "source": "latestly.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "World News | Danish Military Monitors Chinese-flagged Bulk Carrier After Undersea Data Cables Were Ruptured"}, {"date": "2024-11-20", "source": "smh.com.au", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Chinese cargo ship Yi Peng 3 suspected of sabotage of Baltic Sea cables"}, {"date": "2024-11-20", "source": "datacenterdynamics.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Chinese bulk carrier suspected of being behind Baltic Sea cable cuts"}, {"date": "2024-11-20", "source": "english.pravda.ru", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Mystery behind Baltic undersea cables and Chinese cargo ship with Russian captain"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2024-11-05", "2024-11-06", "2024-11-07", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-09", "2024-11-10", "2024-11-11", "2024-11-12", "2024-11-13", "2024-11-14", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-16", "2024-11-17", "2024-11-18", "2024-11-19", "2024-11-20", "2024-11-21", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-23", "2024-11-24", "2024-11-25", "2024-11-26", 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