{"id": "2024-02-19-c-vessel", "slug": "2024-houthi-attacks-damage-cargo-ships-in-red-sea", "url": "/incidents/2024-houthi-attacks-damage-cargo-ships-in-red-sea/", "label": "Houthi attacks damage cargo ships in Red Sea", "summary": "Multiple cargo ships were attacked by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea during mid-to-late February 2024, with at least one British-registered vessel sustaining severe damage and causing an oil slick. US military and maritime agencies reported missile strikes on several vessels transiting the region.", "incident_type": "attack", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["cargo ship", "tanker", "bulk carrier"], "location": "Red Sea", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2024-02-19", "peak_level": 117.95, "peak_level_date": "2024-02-19", "onset_date": "2024-02-18", "end_date": "2024-02-24", "duration_days": 7, "composite": {"excess_area": 42.95100000000001, "highest_since": "2024-01-29", "peak": 117.95, "peak_z": 0.6728245871145436, "percentile_of_peak_day": 91.6631, "rank_of_peak_day": 196}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 361.781, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.7124836356564446, "share_at_peak": 0.793047475498387, "share_of_excess": 0.7039739255223408, "share_peak3": 0.7561444537107777}, "research": {"excess": 0.4029999999999916, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.016085556225636892, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0011762702794736212, "share_peak3": 0.002350279059188492}, "search": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.5654531161427157, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 151.527, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.5388142398147834, "share_at_peak": 0.206952524501613, "share_of_excess": 0.29484980419818546, "share_peak3": 0.24150526723003385}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "media-led", "verdict_at_peak": "media-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.0, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.32696955050749155, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 0.5073438211099673, "c_tanker": 1.0853337742494722, "c_teu": -0.04457066400248972, "c_vessel": 17.274449920259038}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.1434715821812595, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.4798301486199574, "peak_z": 1.315460963109472}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 0.9190367222403836, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0584349593495934, "peak_z": 0.15169245552381458}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 0.9789520824003582, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1428571428571428, "peak_z": 0.3587312075075419}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9433621933621934, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.11, "peak_z": 0.3816542352106664}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 1.0241280458671762, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1310517529215358, "peak_z": 0.34236691613926434}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9195828187182654, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1248799231508164, "peak_z": 0.3383839019697168}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.1434715821812595, "peak_z": 1.315460963109472}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9476842791911285, "peak_z": 0.18798740160654379}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.8713272543059777, "peak_z": 0.4524001768730678}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9956178790534619, "peak_z": 0.594281326930113}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.9214594928880643, "peak_z": 0.5586728893062283}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.9839515916863983, "peak_z": 0.4897307366017478}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.002259603314085, "peak_z": 0.5549834590732128}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.8676426047450783, "peak_z": 0.19371781055743006}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 0.9190367222403836, "peak_z": 0.15169245552381458}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0358578813489785, "peak_z": 0.3337852117232635}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.8941176470588236, "peak_z": 1.2112300535155596}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.040590405904059, "peak_z": 0.8790906655799369}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 6, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 2, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2024-02-19", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 95.436}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "composite index was above 110 in this window but never itself showed genuine elevation (z < 2.0); demoted out of tier A \u2014 see README 'Threshold tuning'.", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (720/1074 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.001392757660167131, "cost_of_living": 0.001392757660167131, "engine_of_trade": 0.002785515320334262, "freight_markets": 0.01532033426183844, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.7618384401114207, "human_drama": 0.02924791086350975, "pollution_event": 0.12674094707520892, "safety_failure": 0.0, "seafarer_victim": 0.022284122562674095, "shady_industry": 0.0, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.01532033426183844, "technology_frontier": 0.023676880222841225}, "buckets": {"people": 0.11980315628712072, "planet": 0.11182759205837504, "politics": 0.7077889020872208, "price": 0.03546580688953011, "progress": 0.02511454267775338}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.903899721448468, "mostly acted upon": 0.04735376044568245, "mostly actor": 0.04596100278551532, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.002785515320334262}, "acted_upon_share": 0.903899721448468, "trade_share": 0.023676880222841225, "strongly_negative_share": 0.35097493036211697, 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