{"id": "2024-03-02-gdelt-c-vessel", "slug": "2024-houthi-attacks-on-red-sea-shipping", "url": "/incidents/2024-houthi-attacks-on-red-sea-shipping/", "label": "Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping", "summary": "Multiple merchant vessels attacked by Houthi missiles in the Red Sea during early March 2024. The Rubymar cargo ship sank after being struck, carrying 21,000 tons of fertilizer and causing an environmental hazard. A bulk carrier was hit with three crew members killed. An MSC container ship was also damaged in separate attacks.", "incident_type": "attack", "vessels": ["Rubymar", "MSC container ship", "bulk carrier"], "vessel_types": ["cargo ship", "container ship", "bulk carrier"], "location": "Red Sea / Gulf of Aden", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2024-03-02", "peak_level": 102.399, "peak_level_date": "2024-03-07", "onset_date": "2024-03-02", "end_date": "2024-03-07", "duration_days": 6, "composite": {"excess_area": 5.559000000000012, "highest_since": "2024-02-22", "peak": 102.399, "peak_z": 0.1651913907627286, "percentile_of_peak_day": 88.2428, "rank_of_peak_day": 276}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 83.78199999999997, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.4613962695630426, "share_at_peak": 0.6333225073075671, "share_of_excess": 0.4169773101673741, "share_peak3": 0.6429881103151047}, "research": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.3345280961777607, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "search": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.28897584890164163, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 117.14500000000002, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.8924394704312167, "share_at_peak": 0.366677492692433, "share_of_excess": 0.583022689832626, "share_peak3": 0.3570118896848952}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "low", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "social-led", "verdict_at_peak": "media-led", "verdicts_disagree": true}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.08333333333333333, "breadth": 0.16666666666666666, "concentration": 0.39838172298905283, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 0.19562251227700014, "c_tanker": -0.16554135342752974, "c_teu": 1.5782083493494683, "c_vessel": 9.720340890336766}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.43256464011181, "lifted": true, "peak_multiple": 1.9726890756302522, "peak_z": 2.218775245873814}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 0.8548781516148073, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0045708481462672, "peak_z": 0.012687293509517554}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 1.0785306334371756, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.4723304754481683, "peak_z": 1.0744936141708703}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9608822305451519, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.145, "peak_z": 0.4465015386499558}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 1.0659722222222223, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.14, "peak_z": 0.36927843251026}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9995196926032661, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1354466858789625, "peak_z": 0.36527131602278984}}, "groups_lifted": 1, "lead_group": "Bulk carriers", "verdict": "isolated", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.43256464011181, "peak_z": 2.218775245873814}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0420860018298261, "peak_z": 0.5940870100094026}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.9858156028368794, "peak_z": 1.2376091305167447}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0980920314253648, "peak_z": 1.5045304691897796}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.0975254730713246, "peak_z": 1.3542552416656}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.9305804907241173, "peak_z": 0.20666415988189038}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.0662020905923344, "peak_z": 0.8463792235221926}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.9502944640753828, "peak_z": 0.2681099620075751}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 0.8548781516148073, "peak_z": 0.012687293509517554}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0533257961183342, "peak_z": 0.3431960355361083}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.9880952380952381, "peak_z": 0.47196067198597047}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0497949619214997, "peak_z": 0.5719298043795035}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 2, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 1, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2024-03-07", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 80.538}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "integrated and peak-day verdicts differ (smoothing artefact likely)", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (453/781 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.004415011037527594, "freight_markets": 0.02207505518763797, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.6799116997792495, "human_drama": 0.002207505518763797, "pollution_event": 0.22958057395143489, "safety_failure": 0.006622516556291391, "seafarer_victim": 0.02869757174392936, "shady_industry": 0.002207505518763797, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.004415011037527594, "technology_frontier": 0.019867549668874173}, "buckets": {"people": 0.11962569549823016, "planet": 0.1970156803237239, "politics": 0.6380880121396036, "price": 0.02579666160849783, "progress": 0.01947395042994444}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.9403973509933775, "mostly acted upon": 0.03090507726269316, "mostly actor": 0.017660044150110375, "neutral": 0.004415011037527594, "primary actor": 0.006622516556291391}, "acted_upon_share": 0.9403973509933775, "trade_share": 0.026490066225165563, "strongly_negative_share": 0.6379690949227373, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2024-03-03", "source": 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