{"id": "2024-05-18-gdelt-c-tanker", "slug": "2024-houthi-missile-strikes-tanker-in-red-sea", "url": "/incidents/2024-houthi-missile-strikes-tanker-in-red-sea/", "label": "Houthi missile strikes tanker in Red Sea", "summary": "On May 18, 2024, Yemen's Houthi rebels launched a missile that struck an oil tanker in the Red Sea, damaging a shadow fleet tanker carrying Russian oil, according to U.S. military reports. The incident occurred amid ongoing Houthi attacks on shipping in the region.", "incident_type": "attack", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["tanker"], "location": "Red Sea", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2024-05-18", "peak_level": 96.689, "peak_level_date": "2024-05-20", "onset_date": "2024-05-18", "end_date": "2024-05-20", "duration_days": 3, "composite": {"excess_area": 15.495999999999995, "highest_since": "2024-04-17", "peak": 96.689, "peak_z": 0.6067155351558423, "percentile_of_peak_day": 86.5327, "rank_of_peak_day": 316}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 67.97450000000002, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.873173922156533, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.44548028337931805, "share_peak3": 0.3728923246041737}, "research": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.4492515078803202, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "search": {"excess": 4.430000000000014, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.13059045798104246, "share_at_peak": 0.15641159913595568, "share_of_excess": 0.04354892618637249, "share_peak3": 0.12513076009290627}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 77.96749999999999, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.0547011071995116, "share_at_peak": 0.8435884008640443, "share_of_excess": 0.5109707904343094, "share_peak3": 0.50197691530292}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "low", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "social-led", "verdict_at_peak": "social-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.0, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.5073170731707317, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": -0.13574444587122925, "c_tanker": 9.759724736818503, "c_teu": 0.11547628597995586, "c_vessel": 6.907337165411904}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.700888450148075, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.8316831683168316, "peak_z": -0.5658393666077423}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 0.7578912576433647, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.8998015873015873, "peak_z": -0.27864192634770374}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 0.831320607713284, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.000780031201248, "peak_z": 0.005449082807094021}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.6675347222222222, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.8746736292428199, "peak_z": -0.4359259186355261}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 0.6978625072212594, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.7746967071057193, "peak_z": -0.7149920726284507}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 0.8475811795891319, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9422885572139303, "peak_z": -0.16750146330687296}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.700888450148075, "peak_z": -0.5658393666077423}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.8195659216067379, "peak_z": -0.17556517554325385}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.5185185185185185, "peak_z": -2.202776999003781}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.8541804544451798, "peak_z": 0.16541181998655288}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.6330275229357798, "peak_z": -0.814769667016334}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.6874617737003058, "peak_z": -0.2971033065367614}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.7685342388228636, "peak_z": -0.287825442111326}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.9565879664889566, "peak_z": 0.23932285734058983}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 0.7578912576433647, "peak_z": -0.27864192634770374}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.6592865928659286, "peak_z": -0.9805873527765675}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.0238095238095237, "peak_z": 0.6608275778905592}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 0.7069182389937106, "peak_z": -0.8167594860740406}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 3, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 2, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2024-05-20", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 74.821}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (172/394 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.005847953216374269, "freight_markets": 0.04678362573099415, "geopolitical_pawn": 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"trade", "title": "Houthis attack Greek tanker in Red Sea, crew unhurt"}, {"date": "2024-05-20", "source": "tradewindsnews.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "Greek tanker attack may have been 'accident' as former US-linked vessel targeted"}, {"date": "2024-05-18", "source": "yahoo.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Yemen's Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes an oil tanker in the Red Sea, US military says"}, {"date": "2024-05-18", "source": "cbsnews.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Houthi missile strikes Greek-owned oil tanker in Red Sea, U.S. says"}, {"date": "2024-05-18", "source": "latestly.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Middle East Crisis: Yemen's Houthi Rebels Launch Missile That Strikes Oil Tanker in Red Sea, Says US Military"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2024-05-04", "2024-05-05", "2024-05-06", "2024-05-07", "2024-05-08", "2024-05-09", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-11", "2024-05-12", 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