{"id": "2024-01-27-c-tanker", "slug": "2024-houthis-attack-oil-tankers-in-red-sea", "url": "/incidents/2024-houthis-attack-oil-tankers-in-red-sea/", "label": "Houthis attack oil tankers in Red Sea", "summary": "Houthi rebels attacked oil tankers in the Red Sea in late January 2024, including strikes on British and Russian vessels. The attacks prompted widespread tanker diversions from the Suez Canal, causing freight rates to surge and disrupting global oil shipping routes.", "incident_type": "attack", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["oil tanker"], "location": "Red Sea", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2024-01-27", "peak_level": 136.714, "peak_level_date": "2024-01-27", "onset_date": "2024-01-26", "end_date": "2024-01-29", "duration_days": 4, "composite": {"excess_area": 130.813, "highest_since": "2023-12-31", "peak": 136.714, "peak_z": 1.4589642016633082, "percentile_of_peak_day": 93.9718, "rank_of_peak_day": 142}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 62.33799999999998, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.5052035282237185, "share_at_peak": 0.13560149376752278, "share_of_excess": 0.08769263827349402, "share_peak3": 0.09878176180390509}, "research": {"excess": 181.3105, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 2.120858636074232, "share_at_peak": 0.27210168871018287, "share_of_excess": 0.38258195863725997, "share_peak3": 0.33529768738875465}, "search": {"excess": 30.972000000000023, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.5995940097201764, "share_at_peak": 0.04923724159755769, "share_of_excess": 0.06535379044739949, "share_peak3": 0.06590346277441307}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 330.10749999999996, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.7839517980888064, "share_at_peak": 0.5430595759247366, "share_of_excess": 0.46437161264184657, "share_peak3": 0.5000170880329272}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "low", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "mixed", "verdict_at_peak": "social-led", "verdicts_disagree": true}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.25, "breadth": 0.3333333333333333, "concentration": 0.39222832260507384, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 0.17449881225989688, "c_tanker": 26.16396326884873, "c_teu": 2.0022493881252346, "c_vessel": 1.288925879672737}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.8596685082872928, "lifted": true, "peak_multiple": 2.3628318584070795, "peak_z": 2.8077237725124182}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.5251460502921006, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.9146341463414633, "peak_z": 1.7141398952028486}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 1.0554226475279107, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.2124600638977636, "peak_z": 0.5225964981761512}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 2.138739946380697, "lifted": true, "peak_multiple": 2.7983870967741935, "peak_z": 3.5073504008373613}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 1.1251063829787233, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.2527659574468084, "peak_z": 0.6370192281008943}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.500996015936255, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.849601593625498, "peak_z": 1.7779139621941442}}, "groups_lifted": 2, "lead_group": "Gas carriers", "verdict": "spillover", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.8596685082872928, "peak_z": 2.8077237725124182}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.1067732831608654, "peak_z": 0.7400296722518662}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.9645390070921985, "peak_z": 0.6747100871002415}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0044398907103824, "peak_z": 0.4310680160659751}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.0369565217391303, "peak_z": 0.9291263029839821}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 2.624758220502901, "peak_z": 4.668230789594889}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.0460992907801419, "peak_z": 1.2169847611925946}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.5644796380090498, "peak_z": 2.3003141877528477}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.5251460502921006, "peak_z": 1.7141398952028486}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.1701368233194527, "peak_z": 0.608852188999292}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.0357142857142858, "peak_z": 1.4046132453278302}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.5754901960784313, "peak_z": 1.952940240288427}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 3, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 2, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2024-01-27", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 113.231}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "composite index was above 110 in this window but never itself showed genuine elevation (z < 2.0); demoted out of tier A \u2014 see README 'Threshold tuning'.", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "integrated and peak-day verdicts differ (smoothing artefact likely)", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (269/269 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0037313432835820895, "engine_of_trade": 0.0037313432835820895, "freight_markets": 0.055970149253731345, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.8768656716417911, "human_drama": 0.0, "pollution_event": 0.0, "safety_failure": 0.007462686567164179, "seafarer_victim": 0.0, "shady_industry": 0.014925373134328358, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.033582089552238806, "technology_frontier": 0.0037313432835820895}, "buckets": {"people": 0.05536992840095475, "planet": 0.0100238663484487, "politics": 0.8114558472553697, "price": 0.11503579952267318, "progress": 0.008114558472553709}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.835820895522388, "mostly acted upon": 0.09328358208955224, "mostly actor": 0.06716417910447761, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.0037313432835820895}, "acted_upon_share": 0.835820895522388, "trade_share": 0.018656716417910446, "strongly_negative_share": 0.5895522388059702, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2024-01-27", "source": "scmp.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Oil tanker carrying Russian fuel on fire after Houthi strike in Red Sea"}, {"date": "2024-01-26", "source": "standard.co.uk", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Oil tanker on fire in Red Sea after strike claimed by Houthis"}, {"date": "2024-01-27", "source": "charter97.org", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Yemen's Houthis Attack Russian Oil Tanker In Red Sea"}, {"date": "2024-01-27", "source": "cnbc.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Trafigura assesses Red Sea risks after tanker attacked by Houthis"}, {"date": "2024-01-26", "source": "seekingalpha.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Red Sea oil tanker hit in most significant attack yet by Houthis (NYSE:FRO)"}, {"date": "2024-01-26", "source": "nbcnewyork.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Oil tanker hit by missile after transiting Red Sea \u2014 Houthis claim responsibility \u2013 NBC New York"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2024-01-12", "2024-01-13", "2024-01-14", "2024-01-15", "2024-01-16", "2024-01-17", "2024-01-18", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-20", "2024-01-21", "2024-01-22", "2024-01-23", "2024-01-24", "2024-01-25", "2024-01-26", "2024-01-27", "2024-01-28", "2024-01-29", "2024-01-30", "2024-01-31", "2024-02-01", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-03", "2024-02-04", "2024-02-05", "2024-02-06", "2024-02-07", "2024-02-08", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-10", "2024-02-11", "2024-02-12", "2024-02-13", "2024-02-14", "2024-02-15", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-17", "2024-02-18", "2024-02-19", "2024-02-20", "2024-02-21", "2024-02-22", "2024-02-23", "2024-02-24", "2024-02-25", "2024-02-26", "2024-02-27", "2024-02-28"], "ratio": [1.39, 1.12, 1.05, 2.22, 1.91, 1.96, 1.66, 1.34, 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{"dates": ["2024-01-12", "2024-01-13", "2024-01-14", "2024-01-15", "2024-01-16", "2024-01-17", "2024-01-18", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-20", "2024-01-21", "2024-01-22", "2024-01-23", "2024-01-24", "2024-01-25", "2024-01-26", "2024-01-27", "2024-01-28", "2024-01-29", "2024-01-30", "2024-01-31", "2024-02-01", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-03", "2024-02-04", "2024-02-05", "2024-02-06", "2024-02-07", "2024-02-08", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-10", "2024-02-11", "2024-02-12", "2024-02-13", "2024-02-14", "2024-02-15", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-17", "2024-02-18", "2024-02-19", "2024-02-20", "2024-02-21", "2024-02-22", "2024-02-23", "2024-02-24", "2024-02-25", "2024-02-26", "2024-02-27", "2024-02-28"], "ratio": [1.35, 0.91, 0.86, 1.43, 1.39, 1.26, 1.15, 1.31, 0.87, 0.95, 1.23, 1.35, 1.33, 1.15, 1.22, 2.58, 2.8, 1.98, 1.54, 1.56, 1.09, 1.08, 1.08, 1.16, 1.91, 1.56, 1.28, 1.29, 1.08, 0.73, 0.67, 1.1, 1.08, 1.15, 1.22, 1.03, 0.81, 0.8, 1.13, 1.19, 1.16, 1.12, 0.96, 0.67, 0.9, 1.25, 1.28, 1.09], "peak_ratio": 2.8, 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