{"id": "2024-01-12-c-tanker", "slug": "2024-houthis-attack-ships-in-red-sea", "url": "/incidents/2024-houthis-attack-ships-in-red-sea/", "label": "Houthis attack ships in Red Sea", "summary": "Multiple cargo ships and tankers were attacked by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden during January 2024, prompting widespread route diversions and international military response. The US and UK conducted airstrikes on Houthi positions in Yemen, while shipping companies rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the conflict zone.", "incident_type": "attack", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["tanker", "container ship"], "location": "Red Sea", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2024-01-12", "peak_level": 134.016, "peak_level_date": "2024-01-16", "onset_date": "2024-01-11", "end_date": "2024-01-19", "duration_days": 9, "composite": {"excess_area": 333.8915, "highest_since": "2023-12-31", "peak": 134.016, "peak_z": 1.797958042085334, "percentile_of_peak_day": 93.8008, "rank_of_peak_day": 146}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 240.68699999999998, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.7053671087402715, "share_at_peak": 0.07190478521132004, "share_of_excess": 0.13449135132552661, "share_peak3": 0.044310594256619026}, "research": {"excess": 88.14800000000001, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.1559417146270239, "share_at_peak": 0.0192189425166036, "share_of_excess": 0.07388315719155493, "share_peak3": 0.013682810062922312}, "search": {"excess": 130.731, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.2229690177934338, "share_at_peak": 0.1076177789316213, "share_of_excess": 0.10957502181341795, "share_peak3": 0.12157353518290849}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 1220.6039999999998, "lead_days": -4, "peak_z": 2.5251633672238727, "share_at_peak": 0.8012584933404551, "share_of_excess": 0.6820504696695004, "share_peak3": 0.8204330604975502}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "social-led", "verdict_at_peak": "social-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.08333333333333333, "breadth": 0.16666666666666666, "concentration": 0.271310471524801, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 3.1930833327686354, "c_tanker": 10.889612687805391, "c_teu": 3.877652695419512, "c_vessel": 8.02477802495099}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.5617698235147899, "lifted": true, "peak_multiple": 2.2466367713004485, "peak_z": 2.644553498198349}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.2108269322754002, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 2.0431472081218276, "peak_z": 1.885150251655396}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 1.2768514753061317, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.4073469387755102, "peak_z": 0.9364150313193269}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.222071868891896, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.449591280653951, "peak_z": 1.26381255734317}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 1.2267169300662124, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.3779527559055118, "peak_z": 0.8788961555523608}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.349873417721519, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.617195496417605, "peak_z": 1.380890503622258}}, "groups_lifted": 1, "lead_group": "Bulk carriers", "verdict": "isolated", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.5617698235147899, "peak_z": 2.644553498198349}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.1998678559629996, "peak_z": 0.7978448415983257}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.0571428571428572, "peak_z": 0.928345527822532}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.3566182215971245, "peak_z": 1.3383634018135577}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.0946859903381643, "peak_z": 1.1209551674672236}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.2796332678454485, "peak_z": 1.4945733574489701}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.2533972821742605, "peak_z": 1.2846533696178504}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.411162314388121, "peak_z": 1.633372491401937}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.2108269322754002, "peak_z": 1.885150251655396}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.2287423539692142, "peak_z": 0.9301539240939106}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.1246612466124661, "peak_z": 1.908541847540528}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.3613333333333333, "peak_z": 1.556222530036887}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 4, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 3, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2024-01-16", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 106.201}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "composite index was above 110 in this window but never itself showed genuine elevation (z < 2.0); demoted out of tier A \u2014 see README 'Threshold tuning'.", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (528/1194 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0019011406844106464, "cost_of_living": 0.005703422053231939, "engine_of_trade": 0.017110266159695818, "freight_markets": 0.09695817490494296, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.7490494296577946, "human_drama": 0.022813688212927757, "pollution_event": 0.005703422053231939, "safety_failure": 0.0, "seafarer_victim": 0.009505703422053232, "shady_industry": 0.0076045627376425855, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.07034220532319392, "technology_frontier": 0.013307984790874524}, "buckets": {"people": 0.03620771796093394, "planet": 0.008813720819437864, "politics": 0.6972367794187696, "price": 0.22606002858504146, "progress": 0.031681753215817184}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.526615969581749, "mostly acted upon": 0.17680608365019013, "mostly actor": 0.25285171102661597, "neutral": 0.0038022813688212928, "primary actor": 0.039923954372623575}, "acted_upon_share": 0.526615969581749, "trade_share": 0.06653992395437262, "strongly_negative_share": 0.11026615969581749, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2024-01-19", "source": "washingtonpost.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Latest Israel-Hamas war news and Gaza updates: Houthis target tanker as Red Sea attacks continue"}, {"date": "2024-01-18", "source": "thetimes.co.uk", "tier": "core", "title": "Houthis claim responsibility for attack on US-owned cargo ship"}, {"date": "2024-01-12", "source": "telegraph.co.uk", "tier": "core", "title": "Russian oil tankers sailing through Red Sea despite Houthi attacks"}, {"date": "2024-01-16", "source": "gcaptain.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "U.S. Confirms New Military Strikes in Yemen, Houthis Hit Bulk Carrier"}, {"date": "2024-01-12", "source": "biztoc.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Oil tankers divert course from Red Sea after US-UK joint airstrikes on Yemen's Houthis: report"}, {"date": "2024-01-15", "source": "canberratimes.com.au", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "No injuries as Houthis hit US-owned container ship: US"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2023-12-28", "2023-12-29", "2023-12-30", "2023-12-31", "2024-01-01", "2024-01-02", "2024-01-03", "2024-01-04", "2024-01-05", "2024-01-06", "2024-01-07", "2024-01-08", "2024-01-09", "2024-01-10", "2024-01-11", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-13", "2024-01-14", "2024-01-15", "2024-01-16", "2024-01-17", "2024-01-18", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-20", "2024-01-21", "2024-01-22", "2024-01-23", "2024-01-24", "2024-01-25", "2024-01-26", "2024-01-27", "2024-01-28", "2024-01-29", "2024-01-30", "2024-01-31", "2024-02-01", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-03", "2024-02-04", "2024-02-05", "2024-02-06", "2024-02-07", "2024-02-08", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-10", "2024-02-11", "2024-02-12", "2024-02-13", "2024-02-14", "2024-02-15", "2024-02-16", 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