{"id": "2024-04-13-c-vessel", "slug": "2024-iran-seizes-container-ship-in-strait-of-hormuz", "url": "/incidents/2024-iran-seizes-container-ship-in-strait-of-hormuz/", "label": "Iran seizes container ship in Strait of Hormuz", "summary": "On or around 13 April 2024, Iran's Revolutionary Guard seized the container ship MSC Aries near the Strait of Hormuz amid tensions with the West. The vessel carried 17 Indian crew members. The seizure was part of Iranian paramilitary operations in the region.", "incident_type": "seizure", "vessels": ["MSC Aries"], "vessel_types": ["container ship"], "location": "Strait of Hormuz", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2024-04-13", "peak_level": 166.889, "peak_level_date": "2024-04-13", "onset_date": "2024-04-13", "end_date": "2024-04-15", "duration_days": 3, "composite": {"excess_area": 158.12850000000003, "highest_since": "2024-04-02", "peak": 166.889, "peak_z": 1.7156910807097494, "percentile_of_peak_day": 96.0667, "rank_of_peak_day": 93}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 558.8525, "lead_days": 0, "peak_z": 3.316956310502422, "share_at_peak": 0.5954741613237667, "share_of_excess": 0.604610315600088, "share_peak3": 0.6082535188074283}, "research": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.13688219731435833, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "search": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.043819144713159654, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0022294958559178728}, "social": {"basis": "x_only", "excess": 365.46599999999995, "lead_days": 0, "peak_z": 1.9114180693675495, "share_at_peak": 0.4045258386762334, "share_of_excess": 0.3953896843999119, "share_peak3": 0.38951698533665385}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "media-led", "verdict_at_peak": "media-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.0, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.5751211631663974, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 0.20393475068959643, "c_tanker": 0.4702137403789144, "c_teu": -0.6744907594765952, "c_vessel": 34.62759847953874}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.869281045751634, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0949820788530467, "peak_z": 0.28924707717565407}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 0.9505323505323505, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.176094441711756, "peak_z": 0.4230179262971276}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 0.9932985852568875, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.086373790022338, "peak_z": 0.2298529310254344}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.7399527186761229, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.933806146572104, "peak_z": -0.22585869107470502}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 0.8000534616412723, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.8932584269662921, "peak_z": -0.3086550660617134}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 0.8001241464928616, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9506057781919851, "peak_z": -0.13838490771557974}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.869281045751634, "peak_z": 0.28924707717565407}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.8696916812100058, "peak_z": -0.030560376242623786}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.6575342465753424, "peak_z": 0.028173216406823937}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0734318133162064, "peak_z": 0.41778587032946674}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.7927170868347339, "peak_z": 0.19652909006000968}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.7313266443701226, "peak_z": -0.33780795758232135}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.8121606948968513, "peak_z": 0.08951929602432779}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.838012958963283, "peak_z": 0.06536846058921837}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 0.9505323505323505, "peak_z": 0.4230179262971276}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.7990251218597675, "peak_z": -0.46080488061318675}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.8636363636363636, "peak_z": -0.34978330958998716}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 0.7787209960384833, "peak_z": -0.7025422633550134}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 3, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 1, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2024-04-13", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 121.513}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["social = X only before Bluesky (2024-07-01); not comparable with today's series", "composite index was above 110 in this window but never itself showed genuine elevation (z < 2.0); demoted out of tier A \u2014 see README 'Threshold tuning'.", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (476/642 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0021008403361344537, "engine_of_trade": 0.008403361344537815, "freight_markets": 0.0063025210084033615, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.9600840336134454, "human_drama": 0.0, "pollution_event": 0.0, "safety_failure": 0.008403361344537815, "seafarer_victim": 0.012605042016806723, "shady_industry": 0.0, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0021008403361344537, "technology_frontier": 0.0}, "buckets": {"people": 0.06498297389330361, "planet": 0.0, "politics": 0.913734392735527, "price": 0.013337116912599417, "progress": 0.007945516458569866}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.9810924369747899, "mostly acted upon": 0.01050420168067227, "mostly actor": 0.0063025210084033615, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.0021008403361344537}, "acted_upon_share": 0.9810924369747899, "trade_share": 0.004201680672268907, "strongly_negative_share": 0.11764705882352941, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2024-04-15", "source": "tradewindsnews.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "Amid outrage over Iranian seizure of container ship, focus switches to release of crew"}, {"date": "2024-04-13", "source": "theweek.in", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Iran's Revolutionary Guard seizes a container ship near Strait of Hormuz amid tensions with West"}, {"date": "2024-04-13", "source": "telegraphindia.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Strait of Hormuz | Iran's Revolutionary Guard seizes container ship near Strait of Hormuz amid tensions with West"}, {"date": "2024-04-13", "source": "newsmax.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Iran's Revolutionary Guard Seizes Container Ship Near Strait of Hormuz"}, {"date": "2024-04-13", "source": "upi.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Iranian media says IRGC seizes container ship in the Strait of Hormuz"}, {"date": "2024-04-13", "source": "theglobeandmail.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Iran's Revolutionary Guard seizes an Israeli-affiliated container ship near Strait of Hormuz"}], 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