{"id": "2024-10-12-gdelt-c-tanker", "slug": "2024-oil-tanker-fire-off-german-baltic-coast", "url": "/incidents/2024-oil-tanker-fire-off-german-baltic-coast/", "label": "Oil tanker fire off German Baltic coast", "summary": "An oil tanker caught fire off Germany's Baltic Sea coast on October 11, 2024. All 7 crew members were rescued. The vessel was towed to a northern German port and the fire was extinguished by October 12.", "incident_type": "fire", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["tanker"], "location": "Baltic Sea, off Germany", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2024-10-12", "peak_level": 64.605, "peak_level_date": "2024-10-12", "onset_date": "2024-10-11", "end_date": "2024-10-12", "duration_days": 2, "composite": {"excess_area": 5.532000000000004, "highest_since": "2024-10-04", "peak": 64.605, "peak_z": 0.4304014869447964, "percentile_of_peak_day": 62.6336, "rank_of_peak_day": 875}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 51.024000000000015, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.4880048908106247, "share_at_peak": 0.9521623512946117, "share_of_excess": 0.7682543984461458, "share_peak3": 0.8308397306283976}, "research": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.9485295260810134, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "search": {"excess": 3.7489999999999952, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.16629982339551866, "share_at_peak": 0.04783764870538826, "share_of_excess": 0.08467149987578186, "share_peak3": 0.07522161127687033}, "social": {"basis": "x_bluesky", "excess": 9.768000000000008, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.47575160582344267, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.1470741016780722, "share_peak3": 0.0939386580947321}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "media-led", "verdict_at_peak": "media-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.0, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.528, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 0.00034393846286127867, "c_tanker": 25.014405325336043, "c_teu": 0.03182057401343152, "c_vessel": -0.40845530562448024}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.8408408408408409, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.8798798798798799, "peak_z": -0.43902299322005406}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 0.8378995433789954, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9090909090909091, "peak_z": -0.2861734453305156}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 0.7966353290450272, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.8, "peak_z": -0.6457132479569403}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.7715582450832073, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9121212121212121, "peak_z": -0.3211772915001461}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 0.9166132135984606, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9331619537275064, "peak_z": -0.2132346280753809}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 0.978709248170326, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.041388518024032, "peak_z": 0.11831442416937865}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8408408408408409, "peak_z": -0.43902299322005406}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.806609547123623, "peak_z": -0.6478979074890078}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.8476190476190476, "peak_z": 0.5090089744143839}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.8114334470989761, "peak_z": -0.5923622299958186}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.9197530864197531, "peak_z": 0.36868940348151424}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.7458677685950413, "peak_z": -0.4797361707516768}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.902676399026764, "peak_z": -0.2926701364422073}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.9892367906066536, "peak_z": 0.20069878728950902}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 0.8378995433789954, "peak_z": -0.2861734453305156}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9458174904942965, "peak_z": -0.11769901376932451}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.8289473684210527, "peak_z": 0.2730153080813854}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0081521739130435, "peak_z": 0.22128313121769172}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 2, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 1, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2024-10-12", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 58.219}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (177/177 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.005649717514124294, "freight_markets": 0.04519774011299435, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.07909604519774012, "human_drama": 0.5480225988700564, "pollution_event": 0.0, "safety_failure": 0.2768361581920904, "seafarer_victim": 0.005649717514124294, "shady_industry": 0.02824858757062147, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0, "technology_frontier": 0.011299435028248588}, "buckets": {"people": 0.766738660907128, "planet": 0.049676025917926456, "politics": 0.11087113030957502, "price": 0.044636429085673064, "progress": 0.028077753779697567}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.9209039548022598, "mostly acted upon": 0.03954802259887006, "mostly actor": 0.03954802259887006, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.0}, "acted_upon_share": 0.9209039548022598, "trade_share": 0.03389830508474576, "strongly_negative_share": 0.20903954802259886, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2024-10-11", "source": "gcaptain.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "German Oil Tanker Ablaze in Baltic Sea"}, {"date": "2024-10-11", "source": "winnipegfreepress.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Fire breaks out on an oil tanker off Germany's Baltic Sea coast. All 7 crew members are rescued \u2013 Winnipeg Free Press"}, {"date": "2024-10-11", "source": "theweek.in", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Fire breaks out on oil tanker off Germany's Baltic Sea coast. All 7 crew members are rescued"}, {"date": "2024-10-11", "source": "biztoc.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Oil Tanker Catches Fire Off Germany's Baltic Sea Coast"}, {"date": "2024-10-11", "source": "offshore-energy.biz", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Black smoke billows out as fire burns at oil tanker off Germany's Baltic Sea coast"}, {"date": "2024-10-12", "source": "countytimes.co.uk", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Fire on board oil tanker off Germany's Baltic Sea coast extinguished"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2024-09-27", "2024-09-28", "2024-09-29", "2024-09-30", "2024-10-01", "2024-10-02", "2024-10-03", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-05", "2024-10-06", "2024-10-07", "2024-10-08", "2024-10-09", "2024-10-10", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-12", "2024-10-13", "2024-10-14", "2024-10-15", "2024-10-16", "2024-10-17", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-19", "2024-10-20", "2024-10-21", "2024-10-22", "2024-10-23", "2024-10-24", 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