{"id": "2024-08-12-wiki-lng-carrier", "slug": "2024-russian-lng-carriers-suspected-of-ais-spoofing", "url": "/incidents/2024-russian-lng-carriers-suspected-of-ais-spoofing/", "label": "Russian LNG carriers suspected of AIS spoofing", "summary": "Russian LNG carriers are suspected of manipulating their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals, according to reports from Rystad Energy and a Palau flag investigation cited by Lloyd's List. The incident involves potential GPS spoofing by Russian vessels, raising concerns about tracking transparency in the LNG shipping sector.", "incident_type": "other", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["LNG carrier"], "location": null, "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2024-08-12", "peak_level": 54.4, "peak_level_date": "2024-08-12", "onset_date": "2024-08-11", "end_date": "2024-08-13", "duration_days": 3, "composite": {"excess_area": 0.0, "highest_since": "2024-08-10", "peak": 54.4, "peak_z": -0.5217427068678113, "percentile_of_peak_day": 42.7106, "rank_of_peak_day": 1341}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.623660075275709, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "research": {"excess": 9.386499999999998, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.4723658415498308, "share_at_peak": 0.5464042631773335, "share_of_excess": 0.4289304727305962, "share_peak3": 0.4289304727305962}, "search": {"excess": 12.496999999999993, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.4355122126663388, "share_at_peak": 0.4535957368226665, "share_of_excess": 0.5710695272694037, "share_peak3": 0.5710695272694037}, "social": {"basis": "x_bluesky", "excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.2994609931595757, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "medium", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "public-curiosity-led", "verdict_at_peak": "public-curiosity-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.08333333333333333, "breadth": 0.16666666666666666, "concentration": 0.8144253827707065, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": -0.3528612462110416, "c_tanker": 0.7105913757966265, "c_teu": 0.750364030212593, "c_vessel": -0.40432452539130526}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9881656804733728, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0235988200589972, "peak_z": 0.08994978342287042}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 0.9020446980504042, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9787234042553191, "peak_z": -0.04816793145305112}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 0.9903011740684022, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0536437246963564, "peak_z": 0.17663807946113094}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 3.3205128205128207, "lifted": true, "peak_multiple": 5.146496815286624, "peak_z": 5.715603377865363}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 0.9872286079182631, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0126742712294043, "peak_z": 0.04916077257849854}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.1130551816958276, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.2348993288590604, "peak_z": 0.6455465121825356}}, "groups_lifted": 1, "lead_group": "Gas carriers", "verdict": "isolated", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.9881656804733728, "peak_z": 0.08994978342287042}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.004566210045662, "peak_z": 0.24359244265326063}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.8910256410256411, "peak_z": 0.11948816607602222}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.982943047123446, "peak_z": 0.17220758995424992}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.9708333333333333, "peak_z": 0.5936926349183576}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 4.307116104868914, "peak_z": 7.097577040079129}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.91324200913242, "peak_z": -0.08524696237227959}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.1685092127303183, "peak_z": 0.9375988578735026}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 0.9020446980504042, "peak_z": -0.04816793145305112}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.020278833967047, "peak_z": 0.30580656947831547}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.9316239316239316, "peak_z": 0.0}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.054673721340388, "peak_z": 0.49178647003647236}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 0, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": null, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2024-08-12", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 58.078}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "medium", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (3/3 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms", "coverage panel is based on only 3 articles (< 30) \u2014 directional, not precise"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": true, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.0, "freight_markets": 0.3333333333333333, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.0, "human_drama": 0.0, "pollution_event": 0.0, "safety_failure": 0.0, "seafarer_victim": 0.0, "shady_industry": 0.6666666666666666, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0, "technology_frontier": 0.0}, "buckets": {"people": 0.0, "planet": 0.0, "politics": 0.6666666666666667, "price": 0.33333333333333337, "progress": 0.0}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.0, "mostly acted upon": 1.0, "mostly actor": 0.0, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.0}, "acted_upon_share": 0.0, "trade_share": 0.6666666666666666, "strongly_negative_share": 0.0, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2024-08-12", "source": "lloydslist.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "Palau flag opens investigation into Russia's LNG carriers manipulating AIS :: Lloyd's List"}, {"date": "2024-08-09", "source": "seatrade-maritime.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Russian LNG carrier 'spoofing' likely, says Rystad Energy"}], "headlines_note": "fewer than three independent outlets"}, 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