{"id": "2024-12-15-gdelt-c-tanker", "slug": "2024-russian-tankers-sink-in-black-sea-storm", "url": "/incidents/2024-russian-tankers-sink-in-black-sea-storm/", "label": "Russian tankers sink in Black Sea storm", "summary": "Two Russian oil tankers were damaged and sank in the Black Sea during a storm in mid-December 2024, causing an oil spill of approximately 4,300 tonnes. One vessel split in half near the Kerch Strait. At least one person was reported dead. The incident occurred amid heavy weather conditions.", "incident_type": "sinking", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["oil tanker"], "location": "Black Sea, Kerch Strait", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2024-12-15", "peak_level": 57.67, "peak_level_date": "2024-12-17", "onset_date": "2024-12-15", "end_date": "2024-12-18", "duration_days": 4, "composite": {"excess_area": 22.04549999999999, "highest_since": "2024-11-21", "peak": 57.67, "peak_z": 0.5375225100025752, "percentile_of_peak_day": 51.5605, "rank_of_peak_day": 1134}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 101.13250000000002, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.3452730265137618, "share_at_peak": 0.5044992880312439, "share_of_excess": 0.614687277296853, "share_peak3": 0.5072980117227907}, "research": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.1252890057423115, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "search": {"excess": 16.0815, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.42972677295131784, "share_at_peak": 0.18088733168290502, "share_of_excess": 0.14661597582156088, "share_peak3": 0.2449838698037915}, "social": {"basis": "x_bluesky", "excess": 39.272, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.1484064007994683, "share_at_peak": 0.314613380285851, "share_of_excess": 0.2386967468815861, "share_peak3": 0.2477181184734179}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "media-led", "verdict_at_peak": "media-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.08333333333333333, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.672979797979798, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 1.366984600759806, "c_tanker": 17.833959141269546, "c_teu": 1.8577067873869264, "c_vessel": 3.1854110343848525}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9316596931659693, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0055555555555555, "peak_z": 0.05672588011655606}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 0.965143299767622, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0278637770897834, "peak_z": 0.10890084574158534}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 0.8611255862428349, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9335410176531672, "peak_z": -0.1713682302405251}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.8839563862928349, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9721362229102167, "peak_z": -0.043757651694858436}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 0.9126843657817109, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9598583234946871, "peak_z": -0.1231103440709566}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.3125, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.4938608458390177, "peak_z": 1.2438628099410778}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.9316596931659693, "peak_z": 0.05672588011655606}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.8404507710557533, "peak_z": -0.40835992023235734}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.8865979381443299, "peak_z": 0.6768319360027637}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.8636779505946935, "peak_z": -0.10056780967581984}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8672839506172839, "peak_z": 0.3141323817449499}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8914405010438413, "peak_z": 0.03773134076665296}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.9637850467289719, "peak_z": 0.3627953047561197}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.4032426778242677, "peak_z": 1.6980951346854456}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 0.965143299767622, "peak_z": 0.10890084574158534}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.8942390369733448, "peak_z": 0.10153352295819082}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.2272727272727273, "peak_z": 1.3905862236370239}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.349726775956284, "peak_z": 2.07278344629959}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 18, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 17, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2024-12-17", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 49.287}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (137/137 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.0, "freight_markets": 0.08759124087591241, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.021897810218978103, "human_drama": 0.051094890510948905, "pollution_event": 0.5912408759124088, "safety_failure": 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Sea"}, {"date": "2024-12-15", "source": "bbc.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Two Russian oil tankers sink in Black Sea"}, {"date": "2024-12-15", "source": "theguardian.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Two Russian tankers sink in Black Sea spilling 4,300 tonnes of oil"}, {"date": "2024-12-17", "source": "maritime-executive.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "As Fuel Washes Up on Black Sea Beaches, Third Russian Tanker Reports Leak"}, {"date": "2024-12-17", "source": "gcaptain.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "Third\u00a0Tanker Sends Distress Call as Oil Washes Up on Russia's Black Sea Coast"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2024-12-01", "2024-12-02", "2024-12-03", "2024-12-04", "2024-12-05", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-07", "2024-12-08", "2024-12-09", "2024-12-10", "2024-12-11", "2024-12-12", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-14", "2024-12-15", "2024-12-16", "2024-12-17", "2024-12-18", "2024-12-19", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-21", "2024-12-22", "2024-12-23", 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