{"id": "2025-08-19-gdelt-c-vessel", "slug": "2025-bulk-carrier-explosion-near-baltimore-harbor", "url": "/incidents/2025-bulk-carrier-explosion-near-baltimore-harbor/", "label": "Bulk carrier explosion near Baltimore Harbor", "summary": "A bulk carrier carrying coal experienced an explosion while departing Baltimore Harbor near the Key Bridge site on August 19, 2025. No injuries were reported. The vessel showed signs of fire damage prior to the incident.", "incident_type": "fire", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["bulk carrier"], "location": "Baltimore Harbor, Maryland", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2025-08-19", "peak_level": 92.447, "peak_level_date": "2025-08-19", "onset_date": "2025-08-19", "end_date": "2025-08-19", "duration_days": 1, "composite": {"excess_area": 32.369, "highest_since": "2025-05-27", "peak": 92.447, "peak_z": 2.0682247256394017, "percentile_of_peak_day": 85.3356, "rank_of_peak_day": 344}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.6550158008874434, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "research": {"excess": 9.7425, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.236688649998866, "share_at_peak": 0.0733781305429015, "share_of_excess": 0.0733781305429015, "share_peak3": 0.08691628753192342}, "search": {"excess": 87.388, "lead_days": -11, "peak_z": 3.8261789321540403, "share_at_peak": 0.6581850728132489, "share_of_excess": 0.6581850728132489, "share_peak3": 0.7566522744460364}, "social": {"basis": "x_bluesky", "excess": 53.461, "lead_days": 0, "peak_z": 2.507710211985055, "share_at_peak": 0.2684367966438496, "share_of_excess": 0.2684367966438496, "share_peak3": 0.15643143802204015}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "public-curiosity-led", "verdict_at_peak": "public-curiosity-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.08333333333333333, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.3730769230769231, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": -1.3177224402284002, "c_tanker": -0.8206071972855765, "c_teu": 0.7839515596095964, "c_vessel": 6.796107425862809}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.270042194092827, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.2647058823529411, "peak_z": 0.8704450829319363}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 0.9761904761904762, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9740820734341252, "peak_z": -0.07834349995184142}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 1.2750185322461083, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.2684365781710913, "peak_z": 0.7448607624103104}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.1950617283950618, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1921182266009853, "peak_z": 0.6674556206816774}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 1.0170040485829959, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0145395799676897, "peak_z": 0.0523922044665397}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0898980537534755, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0888888888888888, "peak_z": 0.2731253191254918}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.270042194092827, "peak_z": 0.8704450829319363}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.148014440433213, "peak_z": 0.48893347353506694}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.896551724137931, "peak_z": -0.3184707503593791}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.3669609079445144, "peak_z": 1.0424227634486993}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.25, "peak_z": 1.04452990251164}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.1919191919191918, "peak_z": 0.6969547295735266}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.0954063604240283, "peak_z": 0.36504953956580904}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.158878504672897, "peak_z": 0.49622825697938167}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 0.9761904761904762, "peak_z": -0.07834349995184142}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.960919540229885, "peak_z": -0.1308774746339171}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.8333333333333333, "peak_z": 3.444185729507783}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 0.9588014981273408, "peak_z": -0.1703331507520017}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": null, "days_to_baseline_note": ">30 days (still elevated at window end)", "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 4, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2025-08-19", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 53.93}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (77/124 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.012987012987012988, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.0, "freight_markets": 0.07792207792207792, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.012987012987012988, "human_drama": 0.8441558441558441, "pollution_event": 0.0, "safety_failure": 0.012987012987012988, "seafarer_victim": 0.0, "shady_industry": 0.012987012987012988, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.025974025974025976, "technology_frontier": 0.0}, "buckets": {"people": 0.8578512396694217, "planet": 0.011570247933884283, "politics": 0.028099173553718975, "price": 0.10247933884297511, "progress": 0.0}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.8701298701298701, "mostly acted upon": 0.07792207792207792, "mostly actor": 0.03896103896103896, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.012987012987012988}, "acted_upon_share": 0.8701298701298701, "trade_share": 0.025974025974025976, "strongly_negative_share": 0.2597402597402597, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2025-08-19", "source": "gcaptain.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "Coal Blast Rocks Bulk Carrier Off Baltimore"}, {"date": "2025-08-19", "source": "zerohedge.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Explosion Rocks Cargo Ship Departing Baltimore Harbor"}, {"date": "2025-08-19", "source": "nbcnews.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Explosion rocks cargo ship leaving Baltimore Harbor"}, {"date": "2025-08-19", "source": "wtop.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "No injuries reported after cargo ship explodes in Baltimore Harbor"}, {"date": "2025-08-19", "source": "bnonews.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Explosion reported as cargo ship catches fire in Baltimore Harbor"}, {"date": "2025-08-19", "source": "marinelink.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Baltimore: Bulk Carrier Afloat After Explosion"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2025-08-05", "2025-08-06", "2025-08-07", "2025-08-08", "2025-08-09", "2025-08-10", "2025-08-11", "2025-08-12", "2025-08-13", "2025-08-14", "2025-08-15", "2025-08-16", "2025-08-17", "2025-08-18", "2025-08-19", "2025-08-20", "2025-08-21", "2025-08-22", "2025-08-23", "2025-08-24", "2025-08-25", "2025-08-26", "2025-08-27", "2025-08-28", 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