{"id": "2025-03-28-gdelt-c-vessel", "slug": "2025-container-ship-north-sea-collision-cargo-ship-grounding", "url": "/incidents/2025-container-ship-north-sea-collision-cargo-ship-grounding/", "label": "Container ship North Sea collision; cargo ship grounding", "summary": "Multiple maritime incidents detected across the window: a container ship collided with another vessel in the North Sea and was towed to Aberdeen; a Chinese cargo ship grounded near Sakhalin Island with Russian assistance; and a fire-damaged cargo ship arrived in Aberdeen. Headlines also reference an LPG carrier stranding and a collision between a Chinese bulker and tug with two seafarers killed. The spike reflects coverage of these overlapping incidents rather than a single event.", "incident_type": "collision", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["container ship", "cargo ship", "LPG carrier", "bulker", "tug"], "location": "North Sea; Sakhalin Island", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2025-03-28", "peak_level": 62.014, "peak_level_date": "2025-03-28", "onset_date": "2025-03-28", "end_date": "2025-03-30", "duration_days": 3, "composite": {"excess_area": 20.708500000000008, "highest_since": "2025-03-21", "peak": 62.014, "peak_z": 1.1124967887181652, "percentile_of_peak_day": 58.8713, "rank_of_peak_day": 963}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 78.98150000000003, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.4437809191954443, "share_at_peak": 0.7087682940405744, "share_of_excess": 0.7467658175337246, "share_peak3": 0.5629878229114428}, "research": {"excess": 16.635000000000012, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.1128828110379136, "share_at_peak": 0.2912317059594256, "share_of_excess": 0.23592454007597058, "share_peak3": 0.4140724453188289}, "search": {"excess": 1.2204999999999941, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.07273093683982583, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.01730964239030481, "share_peak3": 0.022939731769728272}, "social": {"basis": "x_bluesky", "excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.10292802596345513, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "media-led", "verdict_at_peak": "media-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.0, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.4772727272727273, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 0.7164956842044202, "c_tanker": 4.548509194809348, "c_teu": -0.6744907594765952, "c_vessel": 20.892597479386655}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.8583737210554658, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9288025889967637, "peak_z": -0.2621810070315995}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 0.7847336628226249, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.8550247116968699, "peak_z": -0.48780594373655795}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 0.8489996224990563, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9399773499433749, "peak_z": -0.18226150511786915}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.7256235827664399, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.8600682593856656, "peak_z": -0.5401123361424073}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 0.7808519982433025, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.83841059602649, "peak_z": -0.5465017503018401}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 0.8303747534516766, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0207100591715976, "peak_z": 0.06280939924191456}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8583737210554658, "peak_z": -0.2621810070315995}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.8207885304659498, "peak_z": -0.5281828826226468}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.6422764227642277, "peak_z": 0.22953913102328352}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.8833664678595096, "peak_z": 0.13121245625343253}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8535353535353535, "peak_z": 0.24196697859766855}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.7024608501118568, "peak_z": -0.7550493541956966}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.7695133149678605, "peak_z": -0.13929015164614708}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.8571428571428571, "peak_z": 0.07939529174837516}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 0.7847336628226249, "peak_z": -0.48780594373655795}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.8138780804150454, "peak_z": -0.6531227271726907}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.8455284552845529, "peak_z": -0.1289442569304879}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 0.8296703296703297, "peak_z": 0.10348740431462823}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 0, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": null, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2025-03-28", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 62.99}, "attribution": {"alternatives": ["North Sea container ship collision", "Chinese cargo ship grounding near Sakhalin", "Fire-damaged cargo ship arrival", "LPG carrier stranding", "Chinese bulker-tug collision"], "confidence": "medium", "single_cause": false}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "naming step found more than one plausible cause in the headlines (alternatives: ['North Sea container ship collision', 'Chinese cargo ship grounding near Sakhalin', 'Fire-damaged cargo ship arrival', 'LPG carrier stranding', 'Chinese bulker-tug collision']) \u2014 attribution.confidence is low; label may be an honest compound", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (159/282 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.006329113924050633, "freight_markets": 0.03164556962025317, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.0, "human_drama": 0.6139240506329114, "pollution_event": 0.012658227848101266, "safety_failure": 0.3291139240506329, "seafarer_victim": 0.0, "shady_industry": 0.0, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0, "technology_frontier": 0.006329113924050633}, "buckets": {"people": 0.9409751924721985, "planet": 0.017108639863130836, "politics": 0.0, "price": 0.029940119760478966, "progress": 0.011976047904191585}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 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"title": "Container ship damaged in crash with North Sea oil tanker arrives in Scotland"}, {"date": "2025-03-28", "source": "heraldscotland.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Container ship damaged in North Sea crash arrives in Port of Aberdeen"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2025-03-14", "2025-03-15", "2025-03-16", "2025-03-17", "2025-03-18", "2025-03-19", "2025-03-20", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-22", "2025-03-23", "2025-03-24", "2025-03-25", "2025-03-26", "2025-03-27", "2025-03-28", "2025-03-29", "2025-03-30", "2025-03-31", "2025-04-01", "2025-04-02", "2025-04-03", "2025-04-04", "2025-04-05", "2025-04-06", "2025-04-07", "2025-04-08", "2025-04-09", "2025-04-10", "2025-04-11", "2025-04-12", "2025-04-13", "2025-04-14", "2025-04-15", "2025-04-16", "2025-04-17", "2025-04-18", "2025-04-19", "2025-04-20", "2025-04-21", "2025-04-22", "2025-04-23", "2025-04-24", "2025-04-25", "2025-04-26", "2025-04-27", "2025-04-28", "2025-04-29"], 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