{"id": "2025-09-01-gdelt-c-tanker", "slug": "2025-houthis-launch-missile-at-tanker-in-red-sea", "url": "/incidents/2025-houthis-launch-missile-at-tanker-in-red-sea/", "label": "Houthis launch missile at tanker in Red Sea", "summary": "Yemen's Houthi rebels launched a ballistic missile that landed near an oil tanker in the Red Sea on September 1, 2025. The Houthis claimed the target was the tanker Scarlet Ray off the Saudi port of Yanbu. The same day, a Singapore-flagged tanker collided with a Malta-flagged bulk carrier off Tanah Merah with light oil sheens reported, and a pirate attack on a chemical tanker off Togo was reported.", "incident_type": "attack", "vessels": ["Scarlet Ray"], "vessel_types": ["oil tanker"], "location": "Red Sea, off Saudi port of Yanbu", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2025-09-01", "peak_level": 63.917, "peak_level_date": "2025-09-01", "onset_date": "2025-09-01", "end_date": "2025-09-01", "duration_days": 1, "composite": {"excess_area": 2.8930000000000007, "highest_since": "2025-08-25", "peak": 63.917, "peak_z": 0.2208983040751958, "percentile_of_peak_day": 61.522, "rank_of_peak_day": 901}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.1804457954446463, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "research": {"excess": 1.198999999999998, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.16773263523368193, "share_at_peak": 0.038647498710675555, "share_of_excess": 0.038647498710675555, "share_peak3": 0.07529147614110204}, "search": {"excess": 25.593999999999994, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.412905159785004, "share_at_peak": 0.8249742135121197, "share_of_excess": 0.8249742135121197, "share_peak3": 0.8644253649512529}, "social": {"basis": "x_bluesky", "excess": 6.346499999999999, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.4885347309215107, "share_at_peak": 0.1363782877772048, "share_of_excess": 0.1363782877772048, "share_peak3": 0.06028315890764515}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "public-curiosity-led", "verdict_at_peak": "public-curiosity-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.16666666666666666, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.4007707129094412, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": -0.7888836289481643, "c_tanker": 18.42058271454592, "c_teu": 0.11832007506290083, "c_vessel": -0.44158796240677467}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0318471337579618, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0296610169491525, "peak_z": 0.11424281310718916}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0316939890710382, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0305676855895196, "peak_z": 0.10161846011933191}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 0.9506726457399103, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9506726457399103, "peak_z": -0.15523559634382497}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9850746268656716, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9801980198019802, "peak_z": -0.056329688670517325}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 1.3200663349917081, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.3200663349917081, "peak_z": 0.8660178590413599}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9657089898053753, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9648148148148148, "peak_z": -0.11069258123060259}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.0318471337579618, "peak_z": 0.11424281310718916}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.8916967509025271, "peak_z": -0.4058056745623919}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.4285714285714286, "peak_z": 1.234187560576578}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.0169934640522875, "peak_z": 0.05652657393203924}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.3725490196078431, "peak_z": 1.4603677542909244}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8648648648648649, "peak_z": -0.5760809280168893}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.7482014388489209, "peak_z": 2.2483448018910583}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.9455511288180611, "peak_z": -0.1881966932446289}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.0316939890710382, "peak_z": 0.10161846011933191}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.1943793911007026, "peak_z": 0.5850562495614966}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.4333333333333333, "peak_z": 2.0396257095874657}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 0.946969696969697, "peak_z": -0.22111804230196488}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 3, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 3, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2025-09-01", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 62.877}, "attribution": {"alternatives": ["Houthi missile strike on tanker in Red Sea", "Tanker collision off Tanah Merah, Malaysia", "Pirate attack on chemical tanker off Togo"], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": false}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "naming step found more than one plausible cause in the headlines (alternatives: ['Houthi missile strike on tanker in Red Sea', 'Tanker collision off Tanah Merah, Malaysia', 'Pirate attack on chemical tanker off Togo']) \u2014 attribution.confidence is low; label may be an honest compound", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (50/50 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.02, "freight_markets": 0.06, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.78, "human_drama": 0.04, "pollution_event": 0.06, "safety_failure": 0.0, "seafarer_victim": 0.02, "shady_industry": 0.0, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0, "technology_frontier": 0.02}, "buckets": {"people": 0.08219178082191785, "planet": 0.05753424657534248, "politics": 0.7561643835616437, "price": 0.05753424657534248, "progress": 0.04657534246575344}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.8, "mostly acted upon": 0.12, "mostly actor": 0.06, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.02}, "acted_upon_share": 0.8, "trade_share": 0.02, "strongly_negative_share": 0.02, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2025-09-01", "source": "gcaptain.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "Blast Reported Near Liberia-Flagged Tanker Off Saudi Port Of Yanbu"}, {"date": "2025-09-01", "source": "israelnationalnews.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Houthis: 'We attacked Israeli oil tanker Scarlet Ray in northern Red Sea using a ballistic missile'"}, {"date": "2025-09-01", "source": "siasat.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Yemen's Houthis launch missile at oil tanker off Saudi coast in Red Sea"}, {"date": "2025-09-01", "source": "arabnews.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Yemen's Houthis launch missile that lands near oil tanker in Red Sea"}, {"date": "2025-09-01", "source": "yahoo.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Yemen's Houthi rebels launch missile that lands near oil tanker in Red Sea"}, {"date": "2025-09-01", "source": "shipandbunker.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Houthis Claim Missile Strike on Tanker in Red Sea"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2025-08-18", "2025-08-19", "2025-08-20", "2025-08-21", "2025-08-22", "2025-08-23", "2025-08-24", "2025-08-25", "2025-08-26", "2025-08-27", "2025-08-28", "2025-08-29", "2025-08-30", "2025-08-31", "2025-09-01", "2025-09-02", "2025-09-03", "2025-09-04", "2025-09-05", "2025-09-06", "2025-09-07", "2025-09-08", "2025-09-09", "2025-09-10", "2025-09-11", "2025-09-12", "2025-09-13", "2025-09-14", "2025-09-15", "2025-09-16", "2025-09-17", "2025-09-18", "2025-09-19", "2025-09-20", "2025-09-21", "2025-09-22", "2025-09-23", "2025-09-24", "2025-09-25", "2025-09-26", "2025-09-27", "2025-09-28", "2025-09-29", "2025-09-30", "2025-10-01"], "ratio": [1.03, 1.28, 1.36, 1.1, 1.24, 0.88, 0.86, 1.11, 1.17, 1.19, 1.08, 1.0, 1.06, 0.93, 1.03, 1.1, 1.1, 1.53, 1.29, 0.89, 0.96, 1.2, 1.12, 1.09, 0.95, 0.9, 0.75, 0.82, 1.02, 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