{"id": "2025-03-02-social-container-ship", "slug": "2025-multiple-container-shipping-incidents-and-market-reports", "url": "/incidents/2025-multiple-container-shipping-incidents-and-market-reports/", "label": "Multiple container shipping incidents and market reports", "summary": "A spike in social media attention to container ships driven by multiple unrelated events: Iran's seizure of a container ship in the Persian Gulf, reports of a Russian missile attack on a container ship in Odesa, a trade union strike affecting container ships at Hamburg port, and routine market reports on container ship oversupply and charter rates.", "incident_type": "other", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["container ship"], "location": null, "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2025-03-02", "peak_level": 49.498, "peak_level_date": "2025-03-03", "onset_date": "2025-03-02", "end_date": "2025-03-03", "duration_days": 2, "composite": {"excess_area": 0.014000000000002899, "highest_since": "2025-02-14", "peak": 49.498, "peak_z": 0.0014221864940493329, "percentile_of_peak_day": 22.1462, "rank_of_peak_day": 1822}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -1.6421506272129283, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "research": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.9563995941663092, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "search": {"excess": 12.467499999999994, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.5480514163355151, "share_at_peak": 0.24889037769031055, "share_of_excess": 0.27595480250998783, "share_peak3": 0.35185900674651527}, "social": {"basis": "x_bluesky", "excess": 49.068, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 2.359533362000754, "share_at_peak": 0.7511096223096894, "share_of_excess": 0.7240451974900122, "share_peak3": 0.6481409932534848}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "social-led", "verdict_at_peak": "social-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.0, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.5671140939597316, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 0.0177637944195836, "c_tanker": -0.5683358987109451, "c_teu": 0.10341026041515292, "c_vessel": -0.10275251387808153}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.8211508553654744, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9015384615384615, "peak_z": -0.32016539646124675}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 0.971169686985173, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.031301482701812, "peak_z": 0.09600879611981887}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 0.9506242905788876, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1021566401816119, "peak_z": 0.28652608965147924}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.8824531516183987, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0748299319727892, "peak_z": 0.2589995342785383}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 1.1073781291172595, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.326343381389253, "peak_z": 0.8664366847447122}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9115744069015097, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0158045977011494, "peak_z": 0.05443650349894808}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8211508553654744, "peak_z": -0.32016539646124675}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9094540612516645, "peak_z": 0.22620630337691133}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.0121951219512195, "peak_z": 1.180688161969815}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9880478087649402, "peak_z": 0.413301046251042}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.0144927536231885, "peak_z": 1.1937368670988617}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8552036199095022, "peak_z": 0.04969025312219965}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.9847328244274809, "peak_z": 0.25019320495516095}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.9116379310344828, "peak_z": 0.14101697493109946}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 0.971169686985173, "peak_z": 0.09600879611981887}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.205736894164194, "peak_z": 1.3032293653108558}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.9036144578313253, "peak_z": 0.23498085401289695}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 0.9064171122994652, "peak_z": -0.29551640722251804}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": null, "days_to_baseline_note": ">30 days (still elevated at window end)", "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 1, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2025-03-03", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 47.373}, "attribution": {"alternatives": ["Iran seizes a container ship in the Persian Gulf", "Russian missile attack on container ship in Odesa", "Trade union strike at Hamburg port affects container ships", "Container ship market oversupply reports"], "confidence": "low", "single_cause": false}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "naming step found more than one plausible cause in the headlines (alternatives: ['Iran seizes a container ship in the Persian Gulf', 'Russian missile attack on container ship in Odesa', 'Trade union strike at Hamburg port affects container ships', 'Container ship market oversupply reports']) \u2014 attribution.confidence is low; label may be an honest compound", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (11/11 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms", "coverage panel is based on only 11 articles (< 30) \u2014 directional, not precise"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": true, "frames": 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"hellenicshippingnews.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Trade union strike stops container ships in Germany's Port of Hamburg | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide"}, {"date": "2025-03-02", "source": "dailymail.co.uk", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Putin unleashes Iskander-M missile attack to 'sink container ship in Odesa carrying cargo of British weapons for Ukraine'"}, {"date": "2025-03-01", "source": "khaama.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "Iran seizes Israeli-owned container ship in the Persian Gulf amid rising tensions"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2025-02-16", "2025-02-17", "2025-02-18", "2025-02-19", "2025-02-20", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-22", "2025-02-23", "2025-02-24", "2025-02-25", "2025-02-26", "2025-02-27", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-01", "2025-03-02", "2025-03-03", "2025-03-04", "2025-03-05", "2025-03-06", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-08", "2025-03-09", "2025-03-10", "2025-03-11", "2025-03-12", 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