{"id": "2025-10-24-gdelt-c-tanker", "slug": "2025-north-sea-tanker-collision-trial-scheduled", "url": "/incidents/2025-north-sea-tanker-collision-trial-scheduled/", "label": "North Sea tanker collision trial scheduled", "summary": "A tanker damaged in a North Sea collision was sold and reached Turkey for repairs. A civil trial over the incident is scheduled for 2026. The spike also reflects broader tanker market attention including Russian shadow fleet sanctions evasion, supertanker freight rate increases, and industry fleet expansions.", "incident_type": "collision", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["tanker"], "location": "North Sea", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2025-10-24", "peak_level": 61.713, "peak_level_date": "2025-10-24", "onset_date": "2025-10-23", "end_date": "2025-10-24", "duration_days": 2, "composite": {"excess_area": 0.0, "highest_since": "2025-10-20", "peak": 61.713, "peak_z": -0.08686811517368674, "percentile_of_peak_day": 58.2728, "rank_of_peak_day": 977}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 16.086, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.1864214804833355, "share_at_peak": 0.778677514679357, "share_of_excess": 0.6887604367373155, "share_peak3": 0.6807983797671276}, "research": {"excess": 4.8459999999999965, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.3683172878409027, "share_at_peak": 0.22132248532064305, "share_of_excess": 0.3112395632626844, "share_peak3": 0.28754123936364334}, "search": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.20256044863676914, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "social": {"basis": "x_bluesky", "excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.8161414640691806, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.03166038086922904}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "media-led", "verdict_at_peak": "media-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.08333333333333333, "breadth": 0.16666666666666666, "concentration": 0.5338345864661654, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": -0.21789481797074334, "c_tanker": 17.37803517448702, "c_teu": -0.6744907594765951, "c_vessel": 0.6023671416500298}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.8172268907563025, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.8445378151260504, "peak_z": -0.6142498820100224}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0151515151515151, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.020979020979021, "peak_z": 0.06832103603500447}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 0.9645953757225434, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.010204081632653, "peak_z": 0.004523604865249341}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.5182481751824817, "lifted": true, "peak_multiple": 1.8682926829268294, "peak_z": 2.3276189509808476}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 0.9932942162615256, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0453020134228188, "peak_z": 0.13576757418812863}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0794520547945206, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1131725417439704, "peak_z": 0.3372294731003192}}, "groups_lifted": 1, "lead_group": "Gas carriers", "verdict": "isolated", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8172268907563025, "peak_z": -0.6142498820100224}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9408695652173913, "peak_z": -0.08045100003268027}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.3559322033898304, "peak_z": 1.509135515954203}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9682926829268292, "peak_z": 0.016141116878464465}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.98, "peak_z": 0.38408393230717586}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.6751592356687899, "peak_z": 2.938425635342157}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.986159169550173, "peak_z": 0.17553753058174293}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.1509186351706038, "peak_z": 0.48595133360051807}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.0151515151515151, "peak_z": 0.06832103603500447}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9928571428571429, "peak_z": 0.13102261144647923}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.0819672131147542, "peak_z": 0.730058094109788}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 0.8620689655172413, "peak_z": -0.4788919742802301}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 0, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": null, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2025-10-24", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 63.433}, "attribution": {"alternatives": ["North Sea tanker collision and repair", "Tanker market volatility and Russian sanctions evasion"], "confidence": "medium", "single_cause": false}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "naming step found more than one plausible cause in the headlines (alternatives: ['North Sea tanker collision and repair', 'Tanker market volatility and Russian sanctions evasion']) \u2014 attribution.confidence is low; label may be an honest compound", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (82/82 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.0, "freight_markets": 0.14634146341463414, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.0, "human_drama": 0.0, "pollution_event": 0.012195121951219513, "safety_failure": 0.6707317073170732, "seafarer_victim": 0.0, "shady_industry": 0.17073170731707318, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0, "technology_frontier": 0.0}, "buckets": {"people": 0.6672443674176777, "planet": 0.012131715771230499, "politics": 0.1750433275563258, "price": 0.14558058925476602, "progress": 0.0}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.3048780487804878, "mostly acted upon": 0.4634146341463415, "mostly actor": 0.06097560975609756, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.17073170731707318}, "acted_upon_share": 0.3048780487804878, 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