{"id": "2025-01-10-gdelt-c-tanker", "slug": "2025-russian-shadow-fleet-tanker-disabled-in-baltic-sea", "url": "/incidents/2025-russian-shadow-fleet-tanker-disabled-in-baltic-sea/", "label": "Russian shadow fleet tanker disabled in Baltic Sea", "summary": "A disabled Russian 'shadow fleet' oil tanker adrift in the Baltic Sea was secured by German tugs in January 2025. The incident drew significant media attention to Russia's use of aging, uninsured vessels to circumvent Western sanctions on oil exports.", "incident_type": "other", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["tanker"], "location": "Baltic Sea", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2025-01-10", "peak_level": 65.766, "peak_level_date": "2025-01-11", "onset_date": "2025-01-06", "end_date": "2025-01-16", "duration_days": 11, "composite": {"excess_area": 61.957000000000036, "highest_since": "2024-12-31", "peak": 65.766, "peak_z": 1.249402250161725, "percentile_of_peak_day": 64.3437, "rank_of_peak_day": 835}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 337.89799999999997, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 2.605818100351449, "share_at_peak": 0.698552737372999, "share_of_excess": 0.7882073774454489, "share_peak3": 0.7893901443728365}, "research": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.0922912606913502, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "search": {"excess": 8.902499999999996, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.24633905505380563, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.031150004636198374, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "social": {"basis": "x_bluesky", "excess": 77.44, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 1.68807858149047, "share_at_peak": 0.30144726262700094, "share_of_excess": 0.18064261791835276, "share_peak3": 0.21060985562716344}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "media-led", "verdict_at_peak": "media-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.08333333333333333, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.3466055571469493, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 5.223010373014401, "c_tanker": 31.710944348170475, "c_teu": 5.412563688274256, "c_vessel": 2.086530912227907}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.9858704345507865, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1594202898550725, "peak_z": 0.5507083389533618}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0022455632017384, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1563981042654028, "peak_z": 0.45728889697128483}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 1.0545454545454545, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.370530877573131, "peak_z": 0.9574105201373687}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0999707687810583, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.437299035369775, "peak_z": 1.3199075703977705}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 0.9362766420182688, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.060931899641577, "peak_z": 0.18450293767231488}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.1660951148495633, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.344923504867872, "peak_z": 0.9988141115021444}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.9858704345507865, "peak_z": 0.5507083389533618}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9722032353611301, "peak_z": 0.44469542542992013}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.1515151515151516, "peak_z": 1.1640209335937932}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.1066736731476616, "peak_z": 1.6387174524999386}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.0393294648613798, "peak_z": 1.1837578401883724}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.127120259195731, "peak_z": 1.536925385431457}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.9468267581475128, "peak_z": 0.38048670298748855}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.2382920110192837, "peak_z": 1.3442177498999877}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.0022455632017384, "peak_z": 0.45728889697128483}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9316592498410681, "peak_z": 0.20582892389497867}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.2272727272727273, "peak_z": 2.1648873864078233}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0486927320700408, "peak_z": 0.7716893671282323}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 4, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 1, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2025-01-11", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 56.694}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (336/750 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.0718562874251497, "freight_markets": 0.11077844311377245, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.3203592814371258, "human_drama": 0.005988023952095809, "pollution_event": 0.09281437125748503, "safety_failure": 0.023952095808383235, "seafarer_victim": 0.005988023952095809, "shady_industry": 0.3532934131736527, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0029940119760479044, "technology_frontier": 0.011976047904191617}, "buckets": {"people": 0.06498884995221405, "planet": 0.14749920356801524, "politics": 0.6269512583625361, "price": 0.09620898375278734, "progress": 0.06435170436444718}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.5778443113772455, "mostly acted upon": 0.19760479041916168, "mostly actor": 0.1407185628742515, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.08383233532934131}, "acted_upon_share": 0.5778443113772455, "trade_share": 0.09281437125748503, "strongly_negative_share": 0.029940119760479042, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2025-01-11", "source": "cnn.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Germany tows disabled Russian 'shadow fleet' tanker adrift in Baltic Sea"}, {"date": "2025-01-11", "source": "bbc.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Germany says Russian 'shadow' oil tanker stuck in Baltic Sea"}, {"date": "2025-01-11", "source": "scmp.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Germany races to save a Russian 'shadow fleet' tanker to prevent an oil spill"}, {"date": "2025-01-11", "source": "theguardian.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Germany battles to secure 'Russian shadow fleet' oil tanker adrift off northern coast | Germany"}, {"date": "2025-01-12", "source": "dw.com", "tier": "core", "title": "Russian 'shadow fleet' oil tanker towed to German port \u2013 DW \u2013 01/12/2025"}, {"date": "2025-01-11", "source": "maritime-executive.com", "tier": "trade", "title": "Fully Laden Shadow Fleet Tanker Breaks Down in Baltic Storm"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2024-12-23", "2024-12-24", "2024-12-25", "2024-12-26", "2024-12-27", "2024-12-28", "2024-12-29", "2024-12-30", "2024-12-31", "2025-01-01", "2025-01-02", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-04", "2025-01-05", "2025-01-06", "2025-01-07", 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