{"id": "2025-07-21-gdelt-c-tanker", "slug": "2025-uk-sanctions-135-russian-shadow-fleet-tankers", "url": "/incidents/2025-uk-sanctions-135-russian-shadow-fleet-tankers/", "label": "UK sanctions 135 Russian shadow fleet tankers", "summary": "The UK announced sanctions targeting 135 oil tankers operating in Russia's shadow fleet on July 21, 2025, along with sanctions against Lukoil-linked traders. The action was part of efforts to restrict Russian oil exports. The spike also captured routine tanker market reports and a minor fuel tanker spill in Port Angeles, Washington that prompted a temporary water advisory.", "incident_type": "seizure", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["tanker"], "location": null, "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2025-07-21", "peak_level": 51.494, "peak_level_date": "2025-07-24", "onset_date": "2025-07-21", "end_date": "2025-07-24", "duration_days": 4, "composite": {"excess_area": 0.0, "highest_since": "2025-07-18", "peak": 51.494, "peak_z": -0.2698509993412686, "percentile_of_peak_day": 30.7396, "rank_of_peak_day": 1621}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.10348486929085385, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "research": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.20678009227350233, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "search": {"excess": 1.434500000000014, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.07081511798961858, "share_at_peak": 1.0, "share_of_excess": 1.0, "share_peak3": 1.0}, "social": {"basis": "x_bluesky", "excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.3129659287054688, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "public-curiosity-led", "verdict_at_peak": "public-curiosity-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.0, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.25851703406813625, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 2.9084523190067015, "c_tanker": 5.246093819216079, "c_teu": 2.104131463523362, "c_vessel": 1.2037869538038908}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.1322916666666667, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.3568464730290457, "peak_z": 1.139920689581472}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.03343949044586, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.080338266384778, "peak_z": 0.2958189359359112}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 0.949419002050581, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0368852459016393, "peak_z": 0.1452799145775572}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0673758865248226, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1603773584905661, "peak_z": 0.6162751450311565}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 0.9258823529411765, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.945141065830721, "peak_z": -0.15510529533093684}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0226063829787233, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0865724381625441, "peak_z": 0.30128223123389675}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.1322916666666667, "peak_z": 1.139920689581472}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9973776223776224, "peak_z": 0.33693023278801476}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.9230769230769231, "peak_z": 0.6030457861004589}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9397244546498278, "peak_z": 0.18398482083618575}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.169811320754717, "peak_z": 1.6463221272610604}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.0429936305732483, "peak_z": 0.5002708401579952}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.0841750841750841, "peak_z": 0.6338306031113596}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.0064766839378239, "peak_z": 0.15260992755342173}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.03343949044586, "peak_z": 0.2958189359359112}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.8718510405257394, "peak_z": -0.22525234692721458}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.946969696969697, "peak_z": 1.1544886251195925}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0913793103448275, "peak_z": 0.8623891324866536}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 0, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": null, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2025-07-24", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 67.653}, "attribution": {"alternatives": ["UK sanctions on Russian shadow fleet tankers", "Port Angeles fuel tanker spill and water contamination", "Routine tanker market and fleet reports"], "confidence": "medium", "single_cause": false}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "naming step found more than one plausible cause in the headlines (alternatives: ['UK sanctions on Russian shadow fleet tankers', 'Port Angeles fuel tanker spill and water contamination', 'Routine tanker market and fleet reports']) \u2014 attribution.confidence is low; label may be an honest compound", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (50/50 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.02040816326530612, "freight_markets": 0.14285714285714285, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.32653061224489793, "human_drama": 0.02040816326530612, "pollution_event": 0.12244897959183673, "safety_failure": 0.02040816326530612, "seafarer_victim": 0.0, "shady_industry": 0.3469387755102041, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0, "technology_frontier": 0.0}, "buckets": {"people": 0.03526448362720404, "planet": 0.11335012594458442, "politics": 0.7103274559193954, "price": 0.12342569269521415, "progress": 0.01763224181360202}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.3673469387755102, "mostly acted upon": 0.46938775510204084, "mostly actor": 0.14285714285714285, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.02040816326530612}, "acted_upon_share": 0.3673469387755102, "trade_share": 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