{"id": "2026-05-03-c-industry", "slug": "2026-strait-of-hormuz-shipping-crisis-and-attacks", "url": "/incidents/2026-strait-of-hormuz-shipping-crisis-and-attacks/", "label": "Strait of Hormuz shipping crisis and attacks", "summary": "Multiple maritime incidents in the Strait of Hormuz region during late April and early May 2026, including Iranian seizures of cargo vessels, piracy off Somalia, attacks on merchant ships, and stranded seafarers. Ukraine also targeted Russian shadow fleet tankers. US military intervened to intercept sanctioned vessels and escort merchant ships through the strait.", "incident_type": "attack", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["bulk carrier", "cargo ship", "tanker"], "location": "Strait of Hormuz", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2026-05-03", "peak_level": 210.556, "peak_level_date": "2026-05-10", "onset_date": "2026-05-02", "end_date": "2026-05-14", "duration_days": 13, "composite": {"excess_area": 238.48250000000004, "highest_since": "2026-04-22", "peak": 210.556, "peak_z": 0.7031624145703004, "percentile_of_peak_day": 98.3754, "rank_of_peak_day": 39}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 2851.904, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 2.793803084994446, "share_at_peak": 0.9287584968259205, "share_of_excess": 0.873744428810946, "share_peak3": 0.8869447660378}, "research": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.8729629811716708, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "search": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.23682212395925753, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "social": {"basis": "x_bluesky", "excess": 412.09849999999994, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.5903931351138095, "share_at_peak": 0.07124150317407953, "share_of_excess": 0.1262555711890539, "share_peak3": 0.11305523396220003}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "media-led", "verdict_at_peak": "media-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.16666666666666666, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.3473481195756991, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": 22.32078020452517, "c_tanker": 13.153550460043716, "c_teu": 0.7462370317114928, "c_vessel": 65.86107423989601}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0852390852390852, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.4187192118226601, "peak_z": 1.3000938904016686}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.1747874766742692, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.587601078167116, "peak_z": 1.558496212239503}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 0.96203720002347, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1681957186544343, "peak_z": 0.4715820400987253}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.761880623495121, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.1237458193979932, "peak_z": 0.10080135064868254}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 1.0912471592865505, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.6946428571428571, "peak_z": 1.6735220772090038}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 0.6254555571011268, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.7559912854030502, "peak_z": -0.4999345777296272}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.0852390852390852, "peak_z": 1.3000938904016686}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.998564867967853, "peak_z": 0.6216392327507143}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.063660477453581, "peak_z": 3.1867233025272874}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9295774647887324, "peak_z": 0.7720252717794059}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.7237996902426432, "peak_z": 0.011622621530478418}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8266092881477497, "peak_z": 0.37278202129549953}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.0186104218362282, "peak_z": 0.6825508596845524}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.6066958590490639, "peak_z": -0.48933559805202675}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.1747874766742692, "peak_z": 1.558496212239503}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 1.1514025999413546, "peak_z": 2.3821558752274132}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.0741758241758241, "peak_z": 1.4109270706093913}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 0.809674861221253, "peak_z": 0.36487071817749905}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 2, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": 1, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2026-05-10", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 172.866}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [{"composite_peak": 210.556, "end_date": "2026-05-14", "onset_date": "2026-05-09", "peak_date": "2026-05-10", "peak_z": 46.88733473002664, "triggers": ["gdelt:c_industry", "gdelt:c_vessel"]}], "caveats": ["composite index was above 110 in this window but never itself showed genuine elevation (z < 2.0); demoted out of tier A \u2014 see README 'Threshold tuning'.", "tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (1190/1799 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.0008424599831508003, "freight_markets": 0.03369839932603201, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.8306655433866892, "human_drama": 0.006739679865206402, "pollution_event": 0.005054759898904802, "safety_failure": 0.0008424599831508003, "seafarer_victim": 0.03706823925863521, "shady_industry": 0.07582139848357203, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0008424599831508003, "technology_frontier": 0.008424599831508003}, "buckets": {"people": 0.05850566351449565, "planet": 0.004676296373272302, "politics": 0.8656344175413094, "price": 0.062246700613113264, "progress": 0.008936921957809287}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.6293176074136478, "mostly acted upon": 0.2737994945240101, "mostly actor": 0.04380791912384162, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.05307497893850042}, "acted_upon_share": 0.6293176074136478, 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to exit Strait of Hormuz"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2026-04-18", "2026-04-19", "2026-04-20", "2026-04-21", "2026-04-22", "2026-04-23", "2026-04-24", "2026-04-25", "2026-04-26", "2026-04-27", "2026-04-28", "2026-04-29", "2026-04-30", "2026-05-01", "2026-05-02", "2026-05-03", "2026-05-04", "2026-05-05", "2026-05-06", "2026-05-07", "2026-05-08", "2026-05-09", "2026-05-10", "2026-05-11", "2026-05-12", "2026-05-13", "2026-05-14", "2026-05-15", "2026-05-16", "2026-05-17", "2026-05-18", "2026-05-19", "2026-05-20", "2026-05-21", "2026-05-22", "2026-05-23", "2026-05-24", "2026-05-25", "2026-05-26", "2026-05-27", "2026-05-28", "2026-05-29", "2026-05-30", "2026-05-31", "2026-06-01", "2026-06-02", "2026-06-03", "2026-06-04", "2026-06-05", "2026-06-06", "2026-06-07", "2026-06-08", "2026-06-09", "2026-06-10", "2026-06-11", "2026-06-12", "2026-06-13"], "ratio": [0.96, 1.1, 1.29, 0.94, 1.11, 1.0, 0.9, 0.81, 0.87, 0.91, 0.93, 0.92, 0.87, 1.02, 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