{"id": "2026-02-09-gdelt-c-tanker", "slug": "2026-us-seizes-shadow-fleet-tanker-in-indian-ocean", "url": "/incidents/2026-us-seizes-shadow-fleet-tanker-in-indian-ocean/", "label": "US seizes shadow fleet tanker in Indian Ocean", "summary": "US forces boarded and seized a tanker linked to Russia's shadow fleet in the Indian Ocean on February 9, 2026. The vessel was carrying sanctioned cargo and had defied quarantine orders. The seizure is part of escalating enforcement actions against shadow fleet tankers, with India also detaining Iran-linked vessels and the UK threatening to seize Russia-linked tankers.", "incident_type": "seizure", "vessels": [], "vessel_types": ["tanker"], "location": "Indian Ocean", "tier": "C", "kind": "incident", "shape": "spike", "peak_date": "2026-02-09", "peak_level": 83.219, "peak_level_date": "2026-02-09", "onset_date": "2026-02-09", "end_date": "2026-02-09", "duration_days": 1, "composite": {"excess_area": 0.0, "highest_since": "2026-01-26", "peak": 83.219, "peak_z": -0.1317632086290496, "percentile_of_peak_day": 81.7443, "rank_of_peak_day": 428}, "signals": {"news": {"excess": 25.555999999999997, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": 0.5462777234107488, "share_at_peak": 1.0, "share_of_excess": 1.0, "share_peak3": 1.0}, "research": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.7500876708602123, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "search": {"excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.19744409376444952, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}, "social": {"basis": "x_bluesky", "excess": 0.0, "lead_days": null, "peak_z": -0.14773574320346902, "share_at_peak": 0.0, "share_of_excess": 0.0, "share_peak3": 0.0}}, "signature": {"basis_signals": 4, "confidence": "high", "method_note": "integrated favours slow-decaying/centred-smoothed signals (search); peak-day favours fast signals (social)", "verdict": "media-led", "verdict_at_peak": "media-led", "verdicts_disagree": false}, "spread": {"article_breadth": 0.0, "breadth": 0.0, "concentration": 0.3563218390804598, "controls_detail": null, "controls_moved": false, "gdelt": {"c_industry": -0.41947167757253817, "c_tanker": 12.314742625311771, "c_teu": 0.7515650938520307, "c_vessel": 1.669426627956186}, "groups": {"Bulk carriers": {"excess_ratio": 0.8740740740740741, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.8719211822660099, "peak_z": -0.5037167950352043}, "Car carriers (ro-ro)": {"excess_ratio": 1.0107816711590296, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0107816711590296, "peak_z": 0.03613948612721607}, "Container & cargo ships": {"excess_ratio": 0.9637130801687763, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9629005059021922, "peak_z": -0.11555795437461515}, "Gas carriers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0263157894736843, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0263157894736843, "peak_z": 0.09840017484960803}, "Shipping in general": {"excess_ratio": 0.9699179580674567, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 0.9690346083788707, "peak_z": -0.09664572929117904}, "Tankers": {"excess_ratio": 1.0429654591406907, "lifted": false, "peak_multiple": 1.0456081081081081, "peak_z": 0.13150846069947142}}, "groups_lifted": 0, "lead_group": null, "verdict": "none", "wiki": {"Bulk carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.8740740740740741, "peak_z": -0.5037167950352043}, "Cargo ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9553398058252427, "peak_z": -0.16383926724806175}, "Chemical tanker": {"excess_ratio": 1.2692307692307692, "peak_z": 0.9697112870562876}, "Container ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9715994020926756, "peak_z": -0.09868918089535574}, "Gas carrier": {"excess_ratio": 1.3111111111111111, "peak_z": 1.1868767214098819}, "LNG carrier": {"excess_ratio": 0.9543859649122807, "peak_z": -0.18664908997060325}, "Maritime transport": {"excess_ratio": 0.9649122807017544, "peak_z": -0.14906177484667874}, "Oil tanker": {"excess_ratio": 0.9988571428571429, "peak_z": -0.0036461825325215403}, "Roll-on/roll-off": {"excess_ratio": 1.0107816711590296, "peak_z": 0.03613948612721607}, "Ship": {"excess_ratio": 0.9703703703703703, "peak_z": -0.0999017190850231}, "Ship transport": {"excess_ratio": 1.1153846153846154, "peak_z": 0.4432051870888567}, "Tanker (ship)": {"excess_ratio": 1.1161048689138577, "peak_z": 0.4450748954502447}}}, "decay": {"attention_dividend": null, "days_to_baseline": 0, "days_to_baseline_note": null, "dividend_status": "experimental", "half_life_days": null, "half_life_note": null, "peak_level_date": "2026-02-09", "post_floor_45_90": null, "pre_baseline": 87.014}, "attribution": {"alternatives": [], "confidence": "high", "single_cause": true}, "sub_peaks": [], "caveats": ["tier C: only a Wikipedia article, GDELT sub-vocabulary term, or social per-term query fired \u2014 not yet confirmed as a real maritime incident (Phase C naming/is_maritime_incident does that).", "coverage scored on title only (no excerpt) \u2014 measured ~8pp frame precision cost vs title+excerpt (docs/HANDOVER-incidents.md \u00a72.3)", "coverage filtered to articles matching this incident specifically (49/49 kept) \u2014 see coverage.filter.terms"], "coverage": {"source": "gdelt-bq", "title_only": true, "insufficient": false, "frames": {"climate_villain": 0.0, "cost_of_living": 0.0, "engine_of_trade": 0.04081632653061224, "freight_markets": 0.14285714285714285, "geopolitical_pawn": 0.673469387755102, "human_drama": 0.0, "pollution_event": 0.0, "safety_failure": 0.0, "seafarer_victim": 0.0, "shady_industry": 0.12244897959183673, "supply_chain_fragility": 0.0, "technology_frontier": 0.02040816326530612}, "buckets": {"people": 0.0, "planet": 0.0, "politics": 0.8144796380090498, "price": 0.11764705882352941, "progress": 0.06787330316742081}, "agency_bands": {"entirely acted upon": 0.7755102040816326, "mostly acted upon": 0.08163265306122448, "mostly actor": 0.10204081632653061, "neutral": 0.0, "primary actor": 0.04081632653061224}, "acted_upon_share": 0.7755102040816326, "trade_share": 0.02040816326530612, "strongly_negative_share": 0.10204081632653061, "display_headlines": [{"date": "2026-02-09", "source": "en.apa.az", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "US seizes tanker belonging to 'shadow fleet' in Indian Ocean"}, {"date": "2026-02-09", "source": "redstate.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "US Boards 'Dark Fleet' Tanker Loaded With Venezuelan Oil in the Indian Ocean"}, {"date": "2026-02-09", "source": "hellenicshippingnews.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "U.S. forces board Venezuela-linked oil tanker in Indian Ocean | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide"}, {"date": "2026-02-09", "source": "kyivpost.com", "tier": "mainstream_other", "title": "US Intercepts Sanctioned Tanker Linked to Russia's Shadow Fleet"}], "headlines_note": null}, "wiki_rel": {"articles": {"Bulk carrier": {"dates": ["2026-01-26", "2026-01-27", "2026-01-28", "2026-01-29", "2026-01-30", "2026-01-31", "2026-02-01", "2026-02-02", "2026-02-03", "2026-02-04", "2026-02-05", "2026-02-06", "2026-02-07", "2026-02-08", "2026-02-09", "2026-02-10", "2026-02-11", "2026-02-12", "2026-02-13", "2026-02-14", "2026-02-15", "2026-02-16", "2026-02-17", "2026-02-18", "2026-02-19", "2026-02-20", "2026-02-21", "2026-02-22", "2026-02-23", "2026-02-24", "2026-02-25", "2026-02-26", "2026-02-27", "2026-02-28", "2026-03-01", "2026-03-02", "2026-03-03", "2026-03-04", "2026-03-05", "2026-03-06", "2026-03-07", "2026-03-08", "2026-03-09", "2026-03-10", "2026-03-11"], "ratio": [0.96, 1.13, 1.01, 0.92, 0.98, 0.73, 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